Billionaire Predicts COLLAPSE, “Experts” Divided On Tesla’s Q3 (Video)

their backs are against the wall look at the automakers that the deals that's that the unions have proposed to the automakers I saw now an analysis of Ford where Ford would go if you just did a pro forma and went back the last couple years they would have gone from like you know 30 billion of profits to minus 17 billion of losses so that's a 47 billion dollar swing in the Ford p l that at the same time that the auto companies are facing what you'd expect to be reduced demand because no one can afford a car payment at these higher interest rates the unions are going on strike demanding oh I think this is exit 10 higher wages yeah for a four day work week how does this one day work week after you buy the times piece that this uh UAW Regional director says workers at Tesla are starting to think about organizing or is that just self-serving Union commentary and today if we're going to have a turn there's a negative piece what Barclays about Tesla talking about a Slowdown drive to potential missing quarters one of the most insane things I've ever seen happen is occurring right now in the United States this is going to go down as one of the all-time examples of around find out the United Auto Workers Union is doing its absolute best to accelerate the bankruptcy of the Detroit 3 automakers Ford GM and stalantis I seriously can't believe what I'm seeing yet here we are and while this is currently hitting the fan in Detroit and that's an understatement opinions are seriously divided over Tesla Q3 delivery numbers some predicting an absolute catastrophe and others a huge blowout and even a record what the hell we've got lots to discuss don't forget if you guys would like to access exclusive content Early Access loads of perks my test evaluation model and plenty more check the links in the pinned comment it's a great way to support the channel and by support the channel I mean provide me more resources to buy more Tesla stock I don't need the money but I'll certainly take it the question is do you want the extra content a few hours ago I posted yet another patreon exclusive video it's now almost 350 in the archive the topic funnel enough very closely tied to today's video a vapid sock puppet of the United Auto Workers Union in the Democratic party being exposed for her lack of Integrity honesty and Brazen virtue signaling their backs are against the wall look at the automakers that the deals that's that the unions have proposed to the automakers I saw now an analysis of Ford where Ford would go if you just did a pro forma and went back the last couple years they would have gone from like you know 30 billion of profits to minus 17 billion of losses so that's a 47 billion dollar swing in the Ford p l now maybe you guys can help me out not very intelligent and I'm very bad with numbers so someone explained to me in the comments below would losing 17 billion dollars in a single year be sustainable if the answer is no what would the alternative be to losing 17 billion dollars in a year I guess you'd file for bankruptcy right because there's no point to continue operating if you're facing a 17 billion loss in a single year am I missing something here what the hell is this I think someone's hacked me and know what's going on on my screen right now let's read it anyway step one demand a 40 raise step two get a 100 pay cut because the company you work for goes bankrupt because it could not afford to pay you an extra forty percent rest in peace something to do with the UAW and striking workers I don't think there's any connection let's move on the only way they overcome that is with more expensive cars which Jason to your point means that those cars are not going to get sold you'll have to forgive me once again I'm not very smart so let me just think through this out loud we just heard about 17 billion dollars in annual losses just as a result of salary increases that's bad right but if in addition this company will attempt to increase the price of their products to make up for some of those losses and as a result no one buys the products and they're already going to lose 17 billion bucks due to the higher employee expenses and instead of making some of that money up by selling much more expensive Vehicles no one buys their vehicles period period wouldn't that then mean that they lose way more than 17 billion dollars because they're not even selling vehicles that previously they were able to sell meaning they will sustain absolutely financially catastrophic losses and we're talking about like 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 billion plus dollar losses in a single year that doesn't sound very good GM filed for bankruptcy after far lower losses than that I do think that you're going to just have a little bit of belt tightening in the in the consumer I think this is interesting I think you know tremath you're right that at the same time that the auto companies are facing what you'd expect to be reduced demand because no one can afford a car payment at these higher interest rates the unions are going on strike oh I think this is existence on higher wages yeah for a four day work week how does this one day work week Jason's face says it all four day work week are you kidding if you demand a four-day work week they're going to be rewarded with a zero day work week and termination just to be Crystal Clear when says this is existential he means what he says and what he says existential this pertains to the ability of these companies to continue to exist AKA they're AKA this will send the Detroit three automakers into bankruptcy I still cannot believe what I'm seeing happen in real time and again I've been covering this in great detail on patreon and on X join both platforms with the links below if you don't want to miss any of the drama I actually cannot believe what I'm seeing as I've said in the past the UAW if they actually gave a about their members instead of just aiming to appear to care big difference they would actually be negotiating lower salaries lower wages lower benefits so these companies instead of having to lay off tens of thousands of people and then ultimately go bankrupt anyway could keep these employees on for longer and keep paying them slightly less for longer and delay their inevitable bankruptcies a few years this is crazy I think that the the labor deal is an existence potential risk to the unionized Auto industry in America and I'm not opining on whether this deal should or should not happen I'm just making an observation if the deal as announced happens and you sensitize stalantis GM and Ford's p l to these new terms and then you compare that against non-unionized highly automated organizations like Tesla and rivian it's going to be very difficult for the established Auto industry to survive right translation this well they they're already it's just they're going to get even hotter and faster and then if you'd layer on top of it seven eight nine percent consumer lending rates for new cars forget about it and yet the FED forecast at the same meaning they were being hawkish about race they also said that they were expecting unemployment next year to be 4.1 percent down from their previous expectation of 4.5 percent and they forecast the economic growth would be higher so I just don't understand how these countervailing forces aren't going to create so much stress in the economy that something breaks and these uh idiot unions honestly their timing is so dumb whether it's the ones uh you know in Hollywood or this car strike while they're shutting that's great it's great for Tesla I mean it's giving Tesla the entire U.S auto market on the money this is giving Tesla the entire U.S auto market and to Jason's point about this being the worst time to be striking not just for Auto Workers I mean bro he's right but Hollywood as well these idiots a huge AI disruption is currently taking place screenwriters gonna get chat gpt'd animators are going to get mid-journered storyboarders you guys get the point the two worst possible times for these industries automotive and the world of Hollywood to be striking right now how's it go around find out they most certainly will yeah Tesla is lowering the price when I bought my model y long range I think I paid 72 for it the old price on this chart says 66. that car is now 53 that's down 20 a 13 000 saves the model y long range I think is the greatest vehicle ever made I paid 57 I think for my model y long range oh no no I think I sorry I paid 57 I paid this price for the model y performance the best car and yeah that'll be a forty thousand dollar car in the next three years well you know and I looked at it and I it's speaking of austerity measures I I was like my I have a model X do I get another model X I think I'll just go with the model y because the model X is I don't know 50 more and I I just prefer the model I think I think this labor deal is going to put tremendous pressure on these established Auto oems thank you Captain Obvious China is now the world's largest exporter from what I understand that just happened they work I looked it up 58 to 64 hours a week Factory workers the U.S Factory workers want to work 32 hours a week they want a four day work week I mean I don't understand the timing of these unions I mean they're just going to move these factories to Mexico or I think it's reasonable for the unions to ask for as much as possible on behalf of their members that's like obvious and good because meaning if you're collecting fees from those folks and you're doing a good job on their behalf your job is to ask for as much as possible I get that where I see the breakdown is that it just doesn't seem like there's enough numeracy between them and the companies that they're negotiating against to really sit down and look at what the impact of this is because you may get a short-term labor deal that you can celebrate but it may actually destroy that Union member's pension yes actions have consequences over the short term this might look like a win for the union members but when they end up with a 100 pay decrease and the pensions they're supposedly getting during these negotiations are unable to be paid because the companies they previously worked for and then got fired from have gone bankrupt ain't gonna look like such a great deal then is it it may destroy the company and this is my concern is that then that has to get billed up by by the U.S taxpayer and once it happens in one industry it's going to be very difficult to actually not do it in other Industries and the thing that needs to be understood is the risk that it puts on those kinds of tail outcomes and I think that that's not well discussed nobody in the media is really talking about it they make it a a moral issue of like what is the CEO pay versus what is the ratio of multiple yeah and yeah sure look that's an important issue at some level but if you if for example like you have U.S senators blathering on about how they'll wear a suit and not look like a homeless bum if this deal happens in that and it's like well that's not what you should be saying what you should be saying is my team has done a financial analysis and here's what it shows right they're not saying that this is crazy what you're saying is that the negotiation and also the political dimension of this has become completely untethered from economic realities yes well said David sacks the guy has a great way with words this is identical and I mean identical to the posturing you see for many politicians trying to Pander to voters let's just randomly pick a hypothetical example that didn't actually occur in reality because nothing could possibly be that insane just imagine that you want to Pander to a certain demographic of Voters in a certain area and you decide hey guess what guys everyone in this place should be in entitled to millions of dollars of reparations for things that happened to people in the past by people in the past that have nothing to do with anyone in the present and also are financially impossible to do but hey I'm going to tell you that we're demanding these things because then you're gonna vote for me so what wait what anyway moving on they are negotiating in the review mirror they basically talked about whatever billions of dollars in profits the companies previously had during the serp environment during the Heyday and yeah it's just timings off the timing is off in terms of economic realities but the timing makes a lot of sense if you understand what's recently occurred at the UAW they have a new president Sean Fain and much like any good politician he's currently pandering to his voters AKA union members trying to Curry favor with absolutely asinine demands that many of the union members will think yeah that's right four day work week 40 pay increase these guys this city gets paid more than I'll make in my lifetime that's yeah I'm striking sounds good on paper I'm sure many of the union members right now are like yeah Sean what a legend this guy rocks I suspect they'll have changed their tune a few years from now when they're no longer employed time for Jim and stop trading no sometimes Carl our colleague David paper would say what's the key to this market and today if we're going to have a turn there's a negative piece by Barclays about Tesla talking about a Slowdown drive to potential missing quarters if Tesla is able to turn then I believe we could have a substantial rally because this is a very negative piece Tesla's next quarterly results will certainly be interesting given these shutdowns for the refresh model 3 which Tesla told us ahead of time would be happening who knows where the numbers will come in and how Wall Street and many investors will react very mixed opinions on this one a post from Gary black on X today EV volumes a credible third-party trade Source has posted a Tesla 3Q delivery estimate or 480 000 versus 466 in Q2 with detail below this estimate is much higher than Troy teslak and my own Q3 delivery estimates and reflects no change in China the Q3 versus Q2 which is at odds with China weekly insurance registration stator these estimates broken down by region North America Europe China and rest of world we have Q3 2022 a year ago plus Q2 2023 last quarter for comparison's sake a quarter of a quarter increase in North America of roughly 10 000 or so essentially flat in Europe essentially flat in China and slightly higher for rest of world so it's worth talking about this because per the totals here these estimates last quarter Tesla 466 058 Vehicles delivered if Tesla could deliver 480 104 vehicles in Q3 this would be an absolute blowout result Tesla already told us there are Global shutdowns for the refreshed model 3. they literally told us last quarter we're going to see a reduction in production because of upgrades globally a couple of months later Tesla unveils the refreshed model 3. so if Tesla could pull something like this off holy now the question is are these estimates even close to realistic Gary continues here with a quote from EV volumes supporting their estimates we expect September delivery is to reach 193 000 units thus giving the full Q3 2023 or 480 000 units 193 000 units is not a record as both June and March were above 200 000 units September 2022 at 190 000 deliveries so we are conservatively expecting flat deliveries year over year this is mainly because model 3 is currently being upgraded to facelift version and production was shut down for the upgrade so this is certainly possible although I'd be rather surprised the reason I'm emphasizing this there's some serious disagreement between Wall Street consensus General investor expectations after all Tesla told us they'll be shut Downs globally for upgrades and these estimates from EV volumes they continue this may have had an implication on deliveries so more context Gary was kind enough to share the evolumes the rest in peace X check that out by the way I wasn't even loading a page there bam let's try that again I thought I'll keep that in because clearly still some teething problems over at X so Gary shared the EV volumes record over the last few quarters in Q2 they were off by 3.2 percent q1 off by 1.8 percent Q4 off by a massive 8.6 and Troy's record is better a past performance doesn't indicate future performance but it's worth sharing the point we have a massive Divergence in opinions and expectations this quarter I personally don't have enough insight to even attempt to guess also don't really give a about deliveries this quarter or next I care about the long-term Trend not what's happening over a micro penis length time Horizon so whatever but the reason I mentioned this often Tesla stock can react quite violently to a supposed Miss and or a supposed beat so let's just leave it there only a few days until we know the actual numbers anyway it is worth pointing out that Barclays with the supposedly very negative report currently the most courageous large testicled focus on Wall Street with a whopping 2 260 dollar per share price Target on Tesla stock which is almost exactly where Tesla currently is so brave so courageous Jim Cramer believes that if Tesla the stock can rally and or the company can beat Buckley's very bearish expectations for next quarter apparently the whole stock market will be on fire well we're on the topic of the clackers of the Wall Street analysts covering Tesla stock let's have a look at all the current price targets average price Target over the next 12 months 268.44 in other words within 10 of Tesla 8.7 percent to be exact so brave I wish I could sign up for a course on how to be so courageous like these Wall Street analysts and by the way I wouldn't troll them so hard if they'd been historically correct as opposed to historically chasing after Tesla stock surge after surge after surge so I do have to give some credit here to Morgan Stanley either great marketing and or just a little bit of Courage they're out at 400 per share same for Pierre faragu at New Street research 350. likewise Dan Green tidal wave catchphrase all also recommended Lucid in the past I believe Ives perhaps better luck than good management but it very quickly gets to be a bit of a clown show remember these are not predictions of what Tesla stock will be worth these are estimates but what Tesla will be fairly valued at based on the underlying assumptions that each of these analysts have in their evaluation model hopefully they all do have a model and I'll be honest guys part of the reason I'm running through this right now with Tesla at a market cap of about 770 billion dollars we've just seen the huge incredible progress update on the Tesla humanoid robot trained on end to end video and we still have a bunch of folks on Wall Street here who maybe a month and a half after the fsdv12 demo which is also end-to-end video are still sitting in the 200 Range close to where Tesla is today at the bottom of the pile in terms of credibility and price target of course everybody's favorite method actor playing the role wait what I mean legitimate analysts from a legitimate research firm Gordon Johnson at just over twenty four dollars per share fellow clown Craig going at 85.00 a share shout out to Tessa being egregiously overvalued and Tesla not having anything that Toyota doesn't already have Ryan Brinkman of JP at 120 dollars per share Tony I still don't understand it I thought they were just a car company sakanaki at 150 per share and the man of the moment Dan Levy from Barclays 260 bucks per share again How brave what it's worth I can confirm my 2024 Fair valuation for Tesla which is close enough to 12 months a little bit more let's just say it is significantly higher than the highest on Wall Street then again I may also be significantly higher than anyone on Wall Street at him do you buy the times piece that this uh UAW Regional director says workers of Tesla are starting to think about organizing or is that just self-serving Union commentary now that's a good question isn't it our Tesla workers dumb enough to bite the hand that feeds some context might be useful check this out from Sawyer Merit crazy stat here's how an employee is stocking Tesla Ford and GM has performed over the past 10 years assuming they received it held onto it during that whole time Tesla stock up almost two thousand percent GM stock down 10 and Ford stock down 28 so a Ford or GM employee that received Company stock 10 years ago would have made no money on it if they still held it today and many Tesla employees who did receive stock a decade ago are multi-millionaires and still working not because they need to but because they want to I was talking to Dave about organizer anyway talk about organizing there are no Tesla doesn't how many what are the machines organizing they're talking to each other like the ones in a video they they do have employees they'll hire a lot more for the Cyber truck as that gets rolling that's indeed to work Steve yeah it seems I think it was I think but unlikely right there would be yeah I agree with you but I just want you know this is a true negative piece about numbers and if Tesla can rally on that then that says you know what we have we're done dumping on every single stock in this market except for the refiners so who knows whether or not Tesla will beat Miss all come close to expectations for Q3 deliveries but again I want to emphasize as we saw earlier there's a huge disparity right now between some of the expert predictions on where Tesla delivery numbers will come in could be a bumpy ride when numbers are released a few days from now and you really have to feel for the UAW members currently employed by GM Ford and stellantis EG Chrysler in the United States I'm not sure how many of these union members actually realize the implications of the demands being made by the UAW on their behalf actually being met or even close to met or even slightly met as chamath mentions this really is existential ain't going to end well as I said I thought it would be Tesla indirectly bankrupting these companies with Superior Products at lower prices turns out it may in fact be the UAW has the biggest hand in putting forward General Motors and stalantis out of business I did not see that coming athletic greens 81 has given me a massive meaningful boost in energy allowing me to do a lot more every day including using my brain more and using my body more highly recommend you guys and girls check it out athletic greens81 is an excellent way to fill in nutritional gaps it's got 75 high quality vitamins and minerals and Whole Foods Source nutrients plus prebiotics and probiotics and digestive enzymes and adaptogens to help you deal with stress plus if you click the link in the pinned comment or head to drink SMR you can get yourself a one-year free supply of vitamin D3 and K2 but don't take my word for it here's what some of you guys and girls have to say ag1 has changed my life I was as you described treating myself like a circus ate like trash really exercised use alcohol as a stress crutch cannabis also ag1 is what gave me the kick in the ass got me back to the gym motivated me to do more for myself family my business Etc keep doing what you do now I know there's some Skeptics the same kind of people who think Elon Musk is a fraud reading this gone what do you thought there's no way that's possible bro it must be a placebo effect believe it or not this is a recurring theme if you give your body everything it needs to feel and perform its best including having a lot more energy you'll need ways to use that energy for me personally that includes more exercise moving my my body more more social activity and more cognitively demanding tasks including producing a ton of exclusive content over on Twitter and on patreon plus my daily YouTube uploads the proofs in the pudding on to another testimonial from a viewer of this channel SMR you asked me to provide feedback on ag1 here it is it has helped with mental acuity stamina and intestinal Waste Management can't read between the lines certainly helps with regularity and digestion that's what the digestive enzymes are for it has also dramatically reduced my cravings for sugar you guys need to stop eating sugar it's poison I'm 50 5'9 and overweight AKA a fat I think that's a technical term for overweight isn't it is it fat or obese I can't remember I average 100 hours a week in the west Texas oil fields as a safety supervisor Jesus Christ dude no wonder you're struggling to keep your weight under control 100 hours a week brutal it has helped me lose weight it is not an appetite suppressant it can help fat people suppress cravings and motivation to be healthier is critical for changing your diet love you brother again this is a great point and something people really don't seem to grow grasp if you have more energy everything becomes easier it's like turning on easy mode for Life a few years ago before I was taking ag1 my health was trash I was struggling to get through the day had afternoon fatigue the last thing I wanted to do was either use my brain or move my body didn't have the energy now my biggest struggle every day is figuring out ways to use that energy I'm exercising way more doing a lot more with my friends and family and of course my work output has increased substantially and you can fact check me check out the average length of my videos I was posting to YouTube three years ago Neato say more and one final testimonial love this one okay here's the deal for me with this ag1 I'm 41 years old and not the type to eat drink smoke or sleep healthy so I was skeptical that being said here's what I experienced day one meh day two afternoon fatigue was about 45 minutes late day three zero afternoon fatigue day four zero afternoon fatigue plus extra energy day five again zero afternoon fatigue plus energy wondering what the really see this is the thing right there is also many people just almost too good to be true this is the same experience I had my afternoon fatigue just finished out of nowhere I'm like wait what the why am I not tired in the afternoons anymore surely it's not that easy one is it turns out it was day six and seven same thing day eight same thing plus I had the want to get things done around the house that I normally would slack off and not get done again the point extra energy you'll need to use it you'll find ways to use it day 9 10 and 11 and today is day 12. I love it so however you manage to get me to buy it I'm so glad you did thank you so much SMR it really changed me so far guys this really works just try it by the way this is the reason I continue to relentlessly promote ag1 a lot of people get real mad in the comments oh my God Snickers salmon sold out oh my God he's a scammer this is fraud look constantly I'm pretty sure everyone making these comments is also currently short Tesla stock I'm not particularly concerned about people having a negative perception those folks suffering from small brain syndrome still living in my bumps basement syndrome Etc writing mean comments claiming ag1's a scam or it doesn't work I mean bro when I get feedback like this this is what keeps me going and remember there is a 90-day money-back guarantee there's nothing to lose here just try this stuff for a month and if you don't get these results get your money back see it's a literal no-brainer it's an IQ test at this point in time testimonial after testimonial after testimonial like this get your money back if it doesn't just try it for a month and if it doesn't work get your money back today's the day it's finally time be like this guy who was a massive skeptic but finally after a thousand promotions in a row caved in tried ag1 and has results like this head to drink SMR or click the link in the pin comment and please let me know how you're feeling in a few weeks time now if you'll excuse me time to put my extra energy to good use I'll be recording some more exclusive content for patreon and my Twitter subscribers so click the links to pin comment see you over on Twitter and or patreon and don't forget to grab your ag1 love you