analysts still really like this name although I will say that of the 50 or so analysts that are covering Tesla it's very split we do have some cells we have some holds we have also some buys the lowest price Target is of course from notorious bear Gordon Johnson who is a$ 2433 price Target which is ridiculous and then it totally messes up the rest of the average so around 15% as a Friday of Ford and GM's total production had been shut down as a result of the strike I think at this point meet these people's demands I mean this is something that's going to be a major concern we already had profitability concerns for GM and Ford going into these strikes regarding their EV businesses which Fords expected to lose something of like $3 billion do on an annual basis to build out their EV business so at this point they cannot afford to lose more money and and continue to weaken their balance sheets in this video The Laughing stock of Wall Street the class Clan himself gets absolutely barbecued plus some strange reporting once again round byd who as we heard yesterday are a big threat to Tesla because they have more colors available in their vehicles oh Jesus Tesla Q3 deliveries were an absolute non-event and the drama continues in Detroit with the UAW doing their utmost to absolutely destroy and I do mean destroy as in bankrupt Ford General Motors and stellantis AKA kryler and a few other brands as well absolute Madness and for the Nerds out there we're going to be taking a look at some beautiful s-curves and the current rate of the EV disruption and the collapse of ice vehicle sales want more content Early Access bunch of perks click the links in the pin comment B sold 431,000 EVS across the third quarter and they were 3,456 EVS away from toppling Tesla as the world's biggest and bestselling EV brand so they were very very close and it's a culmination of many many things over the years and in recent years that investment that push with new factories coming online with a great push in China and globally and and also releasing a lot of new models that VY different price points they're able to get to this stage where they're now so close to toppling Tesla so should we tell him and all the other media Outlets reporting byd catches up to Tesla oh my God the factory shutdowns now no disrespect to byd they are scaling relatively fast but they're making almost no money on their vehicles there's far too much complexity in the business and honestly they're so far behind Tesa they would literally need a telescope to see them byd are producing a lot of electric vehicles also a lot of hybrid vehicles they're scaling pretty well but they're not making any money relatively speaking they're a profitable turd of a business only just as opposed to a money printer like Tesla but the media seems to have latched onto this in a quarter in which Tesla has sequential deliveries down because they shut down factories for upgrades including the refresh model 3 they had Factory shutdowns globally I suspect a refresh model 3 will begin to delies in the US this quarter at latest next quarter so there's a reason why Tesla had a decline in quarter over quarter deliveries are we going to hear this certainly not the leading piece in this appearance is this going to be mentioned cuz it's an interesting narrative by is caught up to Tesla but not really comparing Apples to Apples unless of course byd had a bunch of major Factory shutdowns to massively refresh one of their four models and one of their two high volume models oh wait they don't have high volume models they have millions of low volume models again an issue with complexity and of economies of scale a lot of poor takes in the finance media in the last couple of days but don't worry byd will catch up to Tes anyway because they have more colors to choose from referencing yesterday's video if you missed it when then when when can it overtake Tesla this is a really really big question we have one expert who follows EV industry says or told me rather that this could happen as soon as the next quarter at the moment you know you're still more likely looking at uh into 2024 before byd overtakes Tesla in this pure EV cells when you look at them like for like but with Tesla having that bit of a blip in the third quarter they're more like to get back on a more normal trajectory in the fourth so that's how you describe planned Factory shutdowns for a massive upgrade of the refresh model 3 a bit of a blip andan at least they mentioned the blip but is that all they're going to say I'm not trying to be too hard on the folks here on Bloomberg but if you're just a lay person watching this you don't know about you he byd is practically caught up to Tesla in EV deliveries Tesla had a bit of a blip in Q3 you think what happened in Q3 there must have been a Slowdown for some weird reason maybe there's a lack of demand strange and again it's not to take anything away from byd they're doing well they're scaling quickly but they also happen to have Raaz of thin profit margins which puts them in a very precarious situation because they are also selling vehicles on the same Planet as Tesla who have industry letting profit margins and a lot more wiggle room with pricing as we can see on on screen now Chinese battery electric vehicle makers worldwide pre-tax profit in the first 6 months of 2023 versus tesar in billions of dollars byd doesn't just sell electric vehicles they're also selling hybrids they're making money on those as well so byd is selling significantly more Vehicles than Tesla not quite as many purely electric vehicles but significantly more Vehicles total higher volume yet despite that Tesla is making about 3 times as much money as byd selling less Vehicles so R me this if Tesla continues to drive their cost down and pass those cost savings on maybe even drive their cost down at a much faster rate than byd spoiler alert that's inevitable cuz by has far too much complexity not enough scale not enough Simplicity how does by keep selling a high volume of electric vehicles the answer is to cut prices but that's going to eat into their already Mega margins probably not going to end well and again I'm not trying to take anything away from byd of all the companies on the planet they're doing pretty well except of course relative to Tesla though byd is also going to be following with increasing sales it really does remain a question whether they can uh match Tesla and exceed in that fourth quarter as soon as that time U Danny give us a sense of you know where we are in terms of this uh EU probe into subsidies and also you know these companies these electric vehicle companies have been over producing as well what's what's going on with that over producing electric vehicles did I miss the memo they're all selling now the caveat of course if we're talking about a single vehicle at a cast stealership with an absurd six figure markup sure that might be sitting around for six months but vehicles that are being produced and sold to Consumers at reasonable prices without insane deal or markups they're all selling even the sh electric vehicles are selling although the worst they are the less likely consumers are to be dumb enough to buy them but if you make a half decent relatively well priced electric vehicle it'll sell companies can't make enough of them let me show you guys something I saw this on X you know what we're looking at here disruption along the bottom here we have an S curve for battery electric vehicle adoption and we also have an inverted S curve collapse of internal combustion engine Vehicles now thankfully person who's produced this has included internal combustion engine vehicles with a vibrator sized battery in them in the internal combustion engine Vehicles category in red because that's what they are now just to be really clear the dotted line here in blue that is an s-curve adoption rate it's a projection into the future of approximately what total market share of new vehicles sold will look like as electric vehicles go from 0% to 100% of the new vehicle Market at the same time we have the reverse a collapse in internal combustion engine vehicle sales in the dotted red line now as you can see there is a small amount of volatility over the very short term in terms of electric vehicle sales as a percent of the new vehicle Market but let's zoom in a little bit there is a stunning and I mean stunning adherence to an S curve in adoption look at that from 2018 to 2022 4 years right on track at the same time internal combustion engine vehicle sales collapsing at the exact same fing rate look at that it's beautiful now here's the thing nobody knows for sure exactly the slope of this S curve collapse and Adoption of EVS but I can tell you approximately zero people on planet Earth can intuitively understand what is about to happen now play along at home with me folks let's just imagine hypothetically speaking that this is how things play out it's going to be this kind of a shape but the exact slope who knows there will be a crossover point and I think it's going to be a lot sooner than most people expect it may not be as aggressive as is shown in this chart but there will be a point in the next few years at most where electric vehicles comprise 50% or more of the new vehicles sold and internal combustion engine Vehicles less than 50% from where we are today even saying these kind of things out loud for example if you were to suggest by 2025 2026 more than half of all your vehicles sold be electric you'll get laughed out of the room but of course 25 or 26 when that's actually happened everyone will look back and go wo obviously that was going to happen there I knew that it's always obvious in retrospect this is disruption in a nutshell and again I personally think that this is a little bit aggressive but hey I don't intuitively understand exponential growth either so I could be wrong but my best guess is by the end of this decade as in 2030 at least 80% of all new vehicles sold if not 90 or more per will be electric and at that point in time honestly fact well before that point in time consumers are going to require brain damage to consider buying an ice vehicle and companies will need brain damage throughout their ranks to be producing ice Vehicles so the point over production of electric vehicles my ass bro make them and they will sell the limiting factor is supply of relatively well priced compelling electric vehicles not demand now for some of the movers this morning let's welcome in the host of next gen investing Jenny horn Jenny thank you for joining us let's focus on the automakers starting with Tesla we know deliveries came out yesterday now what did the analyst say after those deliveries came out right R so we are seeing the fact that Tesla did report I would say it was pretty much in line with expectations it wasn't necessarily a super negative or super positive result coming in with around 430 deliveries 435 that had been shipped so 435,000 excuse me so we did see Tesla make a slight move to the upside but it was somewhat of a nothing a very muted reaction as it didn't seem like the street was that excited or again that disappointed which is actually something considering last quarter we saw some pretty steep selling the day after they released their deliveries all in all I think that that was a a positive result no selling was seen as a positive so they did see deutche Bank say they could be optimistic here about the next quarter analysts still really like this name although I will say that of the 50 or so analysts that are covering Tesla it's very split we do have some we have some holds we have also some buys and why would it be that the opinions of analysts covering Tesla stock are so divided well the only logical deduction there is they have vastly differing opinions of what Tesla's worth they can't all be right meaning a lot of them are wrong who's wrong well who am I to say but one thing's for sure analysts don't broadly agree on and or uniformly understand the opportunity that is Tesla if they did there'd be very little variation just a few outliers going against the grain instead we have an absolute cluster some buy some sell some hold and as I've mentioned in the past the gap between consensus understanding and reality is called opportunity the lowest price Target is of course from notorious bear Gordon Johnson who has a24 $33 price Target which is ridiculous and then it totally messes up the rest of the average so seriously remember this is the same one that said Tesla's competition if you could call them that what an absolute G seriously she just roasted Gordon's ridiculous price Target and it is ridiculous there's no way that you can justify 23 24 25 28 $74 it's ridiculous there's a point where just like you know what this isn't even worth taking seriously cuz it's a non-serious price Target even just based on Tesla's current profitability the EV business only market share their profit margins they you can justify Tesla valuation many times over there's no way anybody can make a serious attempt at valuing Tesla today and come up with $24 a share you just can't do it different argument could be made for the likes of ton second AR Bernstein who's still struggling and I don't know he's like $150 $175 a share somewhere around there cuz he thinks they're literally just a car company ignoring their growth rate and lots of other things I can understand poor Tony's trapped in his spreadsheet just doesn't get it he's trying his best can't understand it is very low but to be at Gordon Johnson levels there's no way that a serious person can end up with a price Target there so I appreciate the fact that she's willing to call this out for what it is ridiculous analysts to like this name and we saw analyst across the board either my maintain their coverage or raise their price targets but again muted reaction feels almost like a positive reaction from those delivery numbers and so I think that is the optimism we're seeing in shares Tesla also has broken down over the past month by about 20% so right now with that bar being relatively low I think that's also setting the stage for what was a pretty muted reaction Shares are down about 1 and 3/4 of a percent here off the open though yeah it was a little bit of a nonevent but let's switch over to the three automakers who we know have all been trying to be competitors in the EV space at some point was it Yoda who said do or do not there is no try try as you want plan hope dream cool story bro how about you actually do the problem is general mtiv for ETC there a lot of hoping and dreaming and trying and a Severe lack of doing in fact the only doing at the moment from the Detroit 3 is at the non-consensual hands of the UAW he's currently doing all three of these Automotive manufacturers without their consent shout out to the strikes and the insane demands of UAW which will accelerate their bankruptcy what's the latest with the UAW strike though the latest with the UAW strike has been an interesting since we did get some updates from the president of the UAW that was on Friday that said they will be consistent with the what has been occurring so far so now we enter week three of of course these ongoing strikes we have seen the fact that Ford and GM we did get news yesterday from The Wall Street Journal that Ford and GM are laying off about 500 Factory workers as the UAW strike effects now Ripple out so late Monday Ford did say it idled two factories that supply parts to these sport utility vehicle assembly plants in Chicago where workers did walk off the job on Friday work stopped at the Stamping Plant near an SUV Factory in Lima Ohio resulting in the layoffs of about 330 employees well it is if a f o the problem here is it's the supply chain effect so when you have various factories that are closing due to the strikes and you have another Factory that closes due to the lack of parts and then another Factory closes due to the lack of work that's something we've seen around 15% as of Friday of Ford and GM's total production had been shut down as a result of the strike I think at this point meet these people's demands I mean this is something that's going to be a major concern we already had profit profitability concerns for GM and Ford going into these strikes regarding their EV businesses which Fords expected to lose something of like3 billion dollar on an annual basis to build out their EV business so at this point they cannot afford to lose more money and and continue to weaken their balance sheets just spitting facts here this continues to be one of the most stunning things I've witnessed in the business world the UAW are demanding that Ford GM stellantis go bankrupt faster this is literally what their demands will result in this is not in the best interest of the workers who will no longer have an employer many of whom are currently laid off will never be rehired as we heard these companies are already bleeding insane amounts of money billions and billions and billions of dollars attempting to transition where your bees and survive and they were unlikely to make it to the other end of that transition and now their labor costs are going to go through the roof it's going to cost these companies billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars annually in additional labor expenses and that's not even including the billions and billions and billions of dollars literally by the way these companies are already burning well parts of their business are being killed shut down stifled there's a huge knock on effect you can't just have a strike at a single plant producing an engine or a part and not expect it's going to have knock on effects in other parts of the business it's an absolute disaster right now this is something I think that needs to get solved and I also think consider the inflationary environment all we talk about is rising interest rates the rising cost of living the more strapped consumer consumers right now can afford to be out of the work work force for three ongoing four weeks so my heart is now with these people that have been out of employment for go ongoing 3 weeks that would be a very difficult financial position I'm sure to be in so I think reach a resolution it doesn't seem though as we have much updates regarding a resolution unfortunately between these two the UW and the Detroit 3 and with neither side budging really it's clear that it's going to have to be a lot of compromise either way Jenny horn thank you so much it really does seem that it's the UAW budging they've made absolutely absurd demands 40% increase in compensation 40% that's insane can you imagine getting a 40% raise at your job tomorrow for doing nothing yeah I mean you'd like it wouldn't you but that's aing lot of money it's unsustainable Ford in particular have come to the table and going uh Hey guys if we were to actually do this we'll go bankrupt we can't help let's work out of compromise of course there were some leaked Communications from within the UAW that seem to suggest that the point of these strikes wasn't actually really to get a result but to squeeze the nut to these companies and them over an extended period of time really by the way might want to do some digging into that it's quite embarrassing for the UW to have those Communications leaked so it's almost like the UAW isn't really looking for a resolution but just to cause some catastrophic harm to these companies anyway I'm not going to Don the tin foil hat and wonder out loud why they might want to do that but it is worth mentioning obviously the Detroit 3 really do want a resolution ASA fing pee cuz they're bleeding billions of dollars while the strikes go on seems like it's the UAW doesn't want to come to the table want more content Early Access bunch of perks click the links in the pin comment athletic greens ag1 has given me a massive meaningful boost in energy allowing me to do a lot more every day including using my brain more and using my body more I highly recommend you guys and girls check it out athletic greens ag1 is an excellent way to fill in nutritional gaps it's got 75 high quality vitamins minerals and Whole Food Source nutrients plus prebiotics and probiotics and digestive enzymes and adaptogens to help you deal with stress plus if you click the link in the pin comment or head to drink a1.com smmr you can get yourself a 1-year free supply of vitamin D3 and K2 but don't take my word for it here's what some of you guys and girls have to say ag1 has changed my life I was as you described treating myself like a circus ate like trash rarely exercised use alcohol as a stress crutch cannabis also ag1 is what gave me the kick in the ass got me back to the gym motivated me to do more for myself family my business Etc keep doing what you do I 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plus I had the want to get things done around the house that I normally would slack off and not get done again the point extra energy you'll need to use it you'll find ways to use it day 9 10 and 11 and today is day 12 I love it so however you managed to get me to buy it I'm so glad you did thank you so much SMR it really changed me so far guys this really works just try it by the way this is the reason I continue to relentlessly promote ag1 a lot of people get realing mad in the comments oh my God snake all Salon thld out oh my God he's a scammer this is fraud but constantly I'm pretty sure everyone making these comments is also ly short Tesla stock I'm not particularly concerned about people having a negative perception those folks suffering from small brain syndrome still living in my bum's basement syndrome Etc writing mean comments claiming a1's a scam or it doesn't work I mean bro when I get feedback like this this is what keeps me going and remember there is a 9-day money back 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