another really busy news day today for Tesla and we got some good news on top of that we got more strong proof that the Cyber truck launch is now imminent Twitter X CEO Linda says that 90 of the top 100 advertisers have returned to the platform in the past 12 weeks alone about 1500 have returned this is great news for Tesla stock investors because many really don't like Elon selling Tesla stock to fund Twitter slash X and with so many advertisers returning Twitter slash X being profitable is inevitable predictions of Twitter dying will die a lonely Grim death never bet against Elon I agree Tesla has started to deliver a cyber truck launch event apparel to employees hinting at an imminent launch for the electric pickup truck based on the latest rumors that we heard recently it should happen in October some good news here Tesla's shipping thousands of new refresh model of Reese from gigasha hi so the production seems to be going great and yes these are definitely refreshed model 3s the UAW Union president reportedly wants to Target Tesla workers to encourage them to unionize UAW membership has fallen to 400 000 from more than 1 million in the 1970s while it is possible they could be successful I think it is unlikely I agree with Sawyer here I'm looking forward to this one hour long Elon Musk interview that will happen on October 5th we now know that over 95 percent of Tesla sales in China last week were Model Y and the model 3 sales were slightly higher this week last week they were a bit slower but I haven't seen any refresh model 3 delivery so these must have been deliveries to customers that ordered the old model free there are now 20 Tesla Supercharger locations in the US with magic dock where non-passless EBS can charge so even if your AV cannot take the Snax connector you can still try charged with that bulky CCS Tesla just updated its app which hints at improvements to third-party support which ratings has assigned final ratings and rating outlooks to the asset-backed notes issued by Tesla at least trust which should allow consumers to get better lease terms and perhaps leasing will be a little bit easier Tesla is going into a critical trial today over a death that reportedly happened in an autopilot crash where the driver died and his two passengers were seriously injured the passengers and leases state are claiming that a defect in autopilot is responsible for the accident and that Tesla knew that there was a problem with its system making the automaker responsible for the accident Tesla is arguing that driver retention is the problem and also noted that Lee had alcohol in his blood even though it was under the legal limit the automaker also disputes the fact that autopilot was engaged during the crash however Tesla has has previously claimed that when autopilot disengages itself moments before a crash Tesla has one similar case in the past every single one of them but this one is a higher profile since it unfortunately involves a fatality it could also create a precedent for Tesla and Elder autopilot accidents as the argument that Tesla warns drivers that the responsibility is with them will be tested again every single death is extremely unfortunate every single accident is extremely unfortunate but people have to pay attention when they drive an autopilot and for sale driving so Tesla needs to fight back very strongly otherwise if Tesla has to pay out a lot of money for every single lawsuit like this it will hinder the progress and development of autopilot and full cell driving which would then actually result in more lives being lost because the sooner we develop the full sun driving technology the sooner accidents can stop happening the opening statements are expected in court today and the trial could last over a week electric stake is that Tesla is not at full because it never has been and generally Tesla makes it very clear that you have to pay attention even when on full self-driving or autopilot and you have to keep your eyes on the road however lately I have seen a few things from FSD beta there are worrying rides threat from Electric the relatively new behavior of FSD beta moving to the left of a lane when passing a truck has resulted in some small incidents in near misses that would be hard to blame on the drivers also I reported on a serious problem with the latest FSD beta update earlier this month that tried to drive me off the road twice in a few minutes I was using the system as intended with my hands on the wheel and eyes on the road but even then I was barely able to take control in time therefore I think there is room for Tesla to be tested in court with the liability of its system but I don't know enough about this particular case to know if it is warranted we will have to follow the court case and see I have FSD on my car and while I haven't experienced things exactly like Fred I wouldn't be surprised if it actually did have these experiences but it would appear to me that version 12 would be significantly better when it comes to these specific situations like that James has some pretty good insights here Q4 is the perfect quarter to launch the sabatra higher costs per unit of early low volume units will be diluted in a whole lot more sales than Q4 versus Q3 he expects Q4 Auto gross margins to be higher than Q3 Q3 faces headwinds from idle capacity in Austin and China because of the model 3 refresh and deep s and X Cuts this will hit average selling price and average cost so it's a double whammy Q4 will see sales of the higher average selling price Model free and higher overall volumes which will lower average vehicle cost because of economies of scale unless we get an early quarter cut on model y it should easily be greater margin quarter than Q3 also we had this production upgrades in Austin and in other places as well so that will help the model y Q4 is also the seasonally best quarter of the year for auto demand Tesla is expected to release his Q3 production and delivery numbers on Monday this Monday on October 2nd at 8 30 in the morning Eastern time they have consistently released it on the second for the last 14 quarters we would have to go back all the way to 2019 Q4 where the results came out on the third now another thing to keep in mind is the reason why this time the results are likely to be released quite a bit earlier than normal for example normally we expect them to see at around 9 A.M Pacific time but this time is going to be around 5 30 Pacific time that's because it's going to be a Monday so people can actually trade so Tesla usually wants to get these out before the markets open but that's not really a guarantee either for example if you look at uh January 2nd uh right here the results came out at 9 00 a.m Pacific time and the markets were already open so this does not guarantee that the results will come out exactly at 5 30. there's a discussion about the range at the sabatra for the highest trim and Sawyer hopes it would be 500 but he's not really expecting it he says the fact that we haven't heard Elon saying 500 miles of range in so long makes me think it will be in the low to mid 400s that's a really good observation there and here are some of the delivery estimates Baird is expecting 493 000 deliveries that would be spectacular if it happened earlier Geary assessment was 440 000 deliveries but he has now updated it to 445 000 I assume that is because of better than expected deliveries in China so that's nice to see for 2024 James thinks that 2.3 million deliveries is a reasonable estimate for next year a 2.1 million seems too low especially considering the new model 3 and cyber truck adding to volumes year over year but going past 2.3 million looks very challenging to me right now unless prices fall plus margins go to 15 in or Tesla starts to advertise my long-term delivery estimates including next year's estimate is exclusively on patreon you will find it in my evaluation model in the base case so there's this video that shows a Tesla owner in China being turned away from entering this parking lot to charge their Tesla but they were turned away because supposedly uh there is an issue because the parking lot is near government offices and it got a little bit heated too London races here that this government complex is not really uh particularly sensitive so I assume there's no military there or anything like that and the issue has now been resolved so seems like the Tesla owner was able to park and charge his car there in China the best way to get no Tesla allowed parking restriction result is to expose the incident online social media uproar may get things turned around just like this incident and the previous one in which a local Airport Authority refused Teslas to park in its parking facilities hi I'm David Lau VP vehicle software Tesla I'm here at Tesla's Shanghai r d Center with the brand new model 3. we've improved noise reduction both from wind noise and from road noise which allows a newly upgraded audio system to really shine it's impossible for me to describe how awesome it is you just have to experience it to know what I'm talking about ever since we started delivering Model S in China many years ago we knew that China was going to be an incredibly important market for us we knew that we needed to have a software team on the ground to support manufacturing of cars in China or China we're continuing to invest in developing leadership of our technical teams here that's what we do at Tesla we take on Impossible problems and we work together all of this it's just the beginning Joe tagmire posted this interesting picture here you can see how why this is for the model y castings and then this is where cyber truck castings will go and this is how much bigger this whole thing is we are approaching production fast Elon just posted the competition is coming this was in response to Ford's decision to hit the brace on a planned 3.5 billion dollar battery plan in Michigan when do you think the Cyber truck will be launched well if Tesla wants to be a little funny and silly they would do it on Cyber Monday but that's all the way back in November based on the latest rumors we are expecting the launch to happen in October went from dancing to barely walking to now being able to sort some stuff of course that is a person in just a suit I briefly mentioned this earlier but I need to show you the video here as well this model y owner tested the refresh model 3 and note the significant improvements on suspension giving him the impression of a totally different vehicle and look at the bumps it's going through and look at the speed he's going at I would not want to go through these bumps at this speed he's going really fast he's really pushing the car here and he's now slowing down through these bombs Tesla looms large over the UAW strike Rice Electric and there's a take from Morgan Stanley here and if you read in between the lines you can see very clearly that I'm Morgan Stanley thinks this is great for Tesla where you can sell your rights it's incredibly difficult to predict the duration of today's strike given how far apart the two sides appear to be the motivations that the oems and the broader political environment in our view even even before potential 30 to 40 percent rise in hourly worker labor costs we questioned the ability of the Detroit 3 GM Ford stalantis to be able to produce high volume EVS at a profit and outlier inflationary outcome with the UAW merely exacerbates the issue our medium-term review forecast for the Detroit 3 are far below management targets for example one-third or one-fourth of Management's targets due to a variety of factors ranging from cultural to competitive to cultural so yeah this is fantastic for Tesla really unless Tesla's workers unionized then maybe not so good I talked about losing getting impairments and everything for its factor in Saudi Arabia but now it has been officially open and it's the first ever car manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia and I guess this is not really a surprise but Lucid is introduced using another air variant the kingdom dream Edition to celebrate the opening of a factory in Saudi Arabia I have an idea for Lucid there's another special edition that they should work on before it's too late because you know once this thing happens then the special edition will not really feel um all that special I think they should call it not bankrupt dream Edition Apple's work on the Apple car has lost all visibility at the current time according to Apple analyst he says that if apple does not adopt some kind of acquisition strategy to make inroads in the automotive Market it is unlikely that the Apple car will be able to go into mass production within the next years many years probably back in the day Apple actually could have bought Tesla Apple would have been a lot more successful if if it did that but regardless of that I think Apple investors are pretty happy with the returns in the last five to Tanish years Milan seems to be having fun repeating things like this these are not leagues definitely not leaves here are days on wish Tesla was one of the top three most popular stocks with retail investors and you can see that in 2023 so far ah on most days it has been the most popular stock our community is strong and the buying opportunity is clear according to experience Automotive consumer Trends reporting Q2 of 2023 Tesla was four of the top five models in the luxury EV segment interestingly BMW I4 was number four only beating the model S I assume this is in the US and this was before the big model S and X price cuts and once the Cyber comes out if it is considered a luxury vehicle then all five top spots will go to Tesla probably in many countries Tesla has opened its superchargers to Elder EVs and now it has done so in New Zealand as well just a little bit up because and now I'm looking for that you see this is the problem once you you're like this this position I'm looking for the the turn signal and it's down here man get the stocks back I don't know what the heck Tesla is trying to do but they want to cut cost fine but there are some stuff you don't want to mess with yeah removing the stocks I think it's going a bit too far once wholesale driving actually fully works then yeah I don't think we need them but right now I think it would be better if Tesla still included them is it getting worse for GM's Atlantis and for the UAW Union plans to strike additional Detroit free Automotive facilities on Friday apps and serious progress there seems to be some progress here with the strikes the UAW Union wants to emerge from a strike against Detroit's three major automakers with at least a 30 pay raise down from their 40 percent Jeep's first fully electric SUV racks up over 40 000 orders and Jeep aims for 100 EV sales in Europe 50 in North America by 2030. Jeep's first electric SUV starts at forty three and a half thousand dollars the range is 248 miles wltp which is worse than EPA so you need to take it down by a little bit so less than 250 miles yeah that's not great also charging is not exactly fast uh it has 100 kilowatt DC fast charging but overall well I like seeing more EVS on the roads I went for a walk in the city yesterday and yeah all of that pollution not great so I like this and I'm certainly not expecting Tesla to have 100 on the market share have a look at the top selling vehicles in the United States by category year to day through August Tesla's model Y is the best selling SUV of any kind Tesla Model 3 is in second place for passenger cars that's pre-refreshed I think that's going to change Toyota RAV4 average selling price is 35 000 Honda CRV average selling price is 35 000 and then the model y average selling price is 55 000 and people say that affordability is not an issue well if you compare a huge 55 000 SUV to a smaller model y SUV they both cost the same but they are very different Vehicles it's not really a fair comparison and look at the Toyota Camry every selling price thirty thousand dollars Honda Accord average selling price thirty thousand dollars model three is 45 000 so if you are limited on cash and you're going to buy a Camry and that's all the money you have thirty thousand dollars let's say are you buying a model three now if you do all of the math of all the savings yeah probably if you can afford the down payment and if you can afford the monthly payments in the long term actually you'll be just fine because you will save money on gas you will save money on repairs and insurance if you can get cheaper insurance for the model 3 from Tesla overall you're going to do better but many people just look at the sticker price and eventually inevitably the secret prices of EVS will come down by a lot to a point where a sticker price of nav will be less than the secret price of a gas vehicle so we could either advertise right now and educate the consumer that actually the price is so in the long term are already basically the same and in some cases better especially if you add the tax credits from the government or we can just keep making the cars better and naturally the prices will come down anyway and then the choice will be painfully obvious at least where I am over here you can get a lot of these cheaper Vehicles without any down payments but can you get a model 3 or a model Y without a down payment especially if you don't have a really good credit score and then I know people say the 7500 EV tax credit is great but you need to wait uh until the tax returns are done and only then you get the money back and most people live paycheck to paycheck they can't really afford that so that's going to change in the beginning of next year and the sales might pick up a little bit more also if you are going to put a down payment on a 55 000 Tesla versus a thirty thousand dollar Toyota let's say if both down payments are just 10 you're putting down three thousand dollars instead of five thousand five hundred dollars not too many people that makes a big difference and I think 20 down payments are more common so you need to double that Adam Jones from Morgan Stanley is a lead analyst for Ford in Adam Jonas writes do they gm4 and salantis for example uh one to be the next Tesla is that a realistic goal is running a poll will FSD version 12 launches level two three four or hybrid of all three I think it'll be level two meaning you will still need to pay attention the whole time while FSD is on Elon did say it is not going to be beta but if it launches let's say in January I think that's a bit uh too soon to not have it in beta where Tesla would be responsible for the accident look at that inventory in the U.S go down it's not just the model Y which naturally would go down because Texas was shut down for a little while but it's also the model 3. so yeah the inventory is looking really good that's one of the more interesting license plates I've seen according to a new report from Nikkei Toyota is now aiming to produce 600 000 electric cars in 2025 tripling the expected 2024 output of 190 000 units the report notes Toyota has already notified several of its major suppliers of its planned EV production ramp over the next few years so maybe they are actually serious but we'll see I mean last year Toyota and Lexus sold a total of 24 and a half thousand fully electric cars representing just 0.2 six percent of their overall sales and you know it didn't help that the wheels were falling off if you are a new investor that's actually a true story looks like Elon has not been sleeping too well he posted this at 3am the meme says scientist explaining the importance of good sleep me at 3am watching him explain for as I was guessing that Honda's new 300 mile range of EV will probably be in the upper 50 000 price range you can see some of the specs here it is coming to the US in q1 of next year of course because it's a Honda this is an EV built to handle your next adventure simple to charge instantly familiar we've designed an electric SUV with features that make the driving and ownership experience more enjoyable from the company driven by dreams a dream to not go bankrupt during this EV transition I respect that SpaceX has won its first contract with the United States space force to provide customized satellite Communications for the military under the company's new star Shield program there was a lot of controversy recently about startling satellites in Ukraine and here's what elon's biographer had to say about this recently when Russia invades Ukraine the Russians are able to hack all satellites go down except starlink which is Elon Musk and they would have been crushed he's sending hundreds and then thousands of free starlinked dishes and services which basically as fed as fedorov says with the vice Minister saves Ukraine he ends up deciding to give up and to sell control of a certain number of Starling satellites and services and even make a military version of it called starshield that he is now selling outright to the US government and its intelligence agencies so U.S officials get to decide how the starlink is enabled to be used by the Ukraine and it's crazy to think how much power just one single private citizen has accumulated but it's not like Elon was trying to accumulate all of this power he just built companies that are incredibly Innovative and that was a direct result of that and he willingly basically gave away that power which I highly respect because the only times he would kick me out of the room and the only questions he wouldn't answer is when his classified information and he was having a classified conversation and I would have to go as the book went on Walter I got the sense that you were growing more and more impatient with him or at least his lack of self-control did I imagine that I found it really difficult and I try to convey it in the book in very Vivid terms but by the end he's doing amazing things he's getting Starship launch he's starting an artificial intelligence company he's doing full self-driving through machine learning with billions of friends but he's also somewhat unhinged and uncontrolled and shooting things off and saying things especially posting things on Acts or Twitter and it's something that is so impulsive and so immature in a way one of his friends Antonio gracias said we were traveling and he was I just had to try to stop him from doing these tweets and I took his phone and put it in the hotel safe and punch in the code and then left and then at three in the morning musk calls hotel security to get his phone out when I asked him he says yeah if I have one regret is I keep shooting myself in the foot I should buy Kevlar boots because I keep you know shooting myself and stabbing myself and the follow-up is like well why do you keep doing it but he says this is who I am and this is the larger theme of the book I'm sorry to do that which is what a Musk that's controlled what a musk with an impulse control button with a with a mask that you could say Okay temper this with a tempered musk be as successful as a musk Unbound and we have that here in Washington you can call it the Richard Holbrook phenomenon whatever it may be people who are really strong and driven and drive people nuts can you pull out the dark strands and say what a musk Unbound still be getting the Rockets into orbit and the answer is no you don't have to be a jerk or a a-hole or whatever but you have to look at every individual light and dark as a tightly woven Fabric and by understanding them that doesn't mean you sympathize that doesn't mean you excuse but it's really helpful to understand these people that was a very indirect but I think clear way to say yeah if Elon did not have all of these negative traits I don't think we would have all of these achievements that he has successfully accomplished so if you are tempted to complain about elon's weird Behavior occasionally maybe just remember that first and then with that in mind make your comment Elon Musk is the litmus test which is so many people either totally Revere them or can't stand them or somebody out there was telling me I have a Tesla and I love my Tesla but I'm embarrassed because it's Elon Musk so we have to be able to once again understand not only nuances but that sometimes a darkness in somebody is something you can really decry but you have to understand and maybe not admire but have to understand that people are more complex that it's not the cartoon heroes and villains that are cable TVA just turn people into one way to interpret this is to say that Walter just confirmed that without all these bad traits Elon Musk would not have been nowhere near as successful as he has been not understanding this will make you a bad hassle investor this is a video about important lessons and it's available exclusively on patreon by joining my patreon you will get access to how much I think it is fair to pay per Tesla share each year between 2023 and 2033 if you sign up for the investor to your support you will also get my valuation model of Tesla stock with a 45 minute video walkthrough and YouTube says you should watch this video next but if you haven't finished watching that discussion about the future where Elon Musk participates watch this one first thank you so much for watching my name is Matthews
