foreign [Music] [Applause] holy now fair warning folks you might be needing this make sure you're prepared yeah no I don't understand what that meant either remember about a month ago the FSD V12 end-to-end demo where I was nutting left right and center for the next three or four weeks of videos every day hey holy what the hell bro this is huge remember that guess what they've done it again with the humanoid robots the demo we have just seen Tesla's humanoid robot which according to many haters is just a stock pump not a real product it never will be you know where this is going right I know some of you have already figured it out this has been trained the same way V12 FSD was pure end to end video this is huge of course what's to be expected as I've mentioned in the past the brain Tesla is developed for their self-driving Vehicles can in essence be transplanted straight into the humanoid robot was only a matter of time before this happened but just like Tesla's now blown open the path to solving autonomy with superhuman capabilities no more obvious obstacle was in the way where it's prided now with 300 plus thousand lines of code as in heuristics as in instructions and information there were a lot of unknown unknowns the same is now true of the Tesla humanoid robot we're going to watch this video in detail talk about the potential implications and do a deep dive into the absolutely absurd possibilities a Tesla's humanoid robot expanding the global labor market and its possible impact on Tesla this decade and Beyond and I wasn't joking guys make sure you're ready and while you're preparing don't forget if you guys would like access to exclusive content early access to my daily YouTube uploads my test evaluation model my full health protocol check out the links in the pinned comment you can also support the channel even if you don't give a about that extra content by using the same links so here we are over on X where everything that happens happens first from the official Tesla Optimist account which I guess I probably should follow by now boom Optimus can now sort objects autonomously its neural network is trained fully end to end video in controls out now if you know you know and if you know I'll give you a few moments to clean up clearly Tessa recruiting heavily for their Optimus team come join to help develop Optimus and improve its yoga routine so let's watch this video in detail first caption here Optimus is now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs by the way that's also what humans do foreign [Music] [Applause] all right so we've got to stop here I do want to stress this is an emergent ability that has emerged again keyword emerged from being trained or nothing but video this is a stunning moment and pay close attention to the gentle soft touch of the hand the dexterity this is one of the most difficult challenges I believe obviously Visions number one but Tess is already well on the way to solving that but to be able to manipulate objects human hands are absolutely stunning pieces of evolution I mean God did it I'm going to burn in hell for saying Evolution I know so as we know God created perfect human hands on the what day was it the 69th day something like that it's very difficult this challenge because a hand needs to be able to gently manipulate sense pressure not squeeze too hard too soft and so on and we'll talk more about this in a moment in fact let's rewind a little bit and just focus on the Soft Touch Of The Optimist hand thank you [Music] foreign working on this humanoid robot a couple I'd like to discuss here and again I have to emphasize end-to-end video if you know you know unlike say for example what we see with Boston Dynamics where you might see some Robots dancing in sync to a song who knows how many takes it took every instruction every movement is programmed into those robots however the Tesla humanoid robot is completely different it can learn tasks not based on being pre-programmed with every millimeter down to precise movement move here then turn this none of that is programmed in it's learning by example and by doing just like humans now just imagine for a moment a Tesla Optima spot working in a Tesla Factory doing a few basic tasks 23 24 hours a day no need for breaks boring repetitive dangerous unsafe Etc of course would this be an awkward time to mention the UAW currently encouraging its members to strike at GM Ford Etc asking for absurd financially catastrophic pay increases the companies simply won't be able to afford and as a result those employees will be fired and or replaced with robots a lot of people who don't really understand how what Tesla's doing differs from companies like Boston Dynamics might say this demo oh bro modernics have been doing that for years but again thing I want to stress here this is happening via a completely different mechanism the same processes that human beings use to learn how to interact with and move throughout the world this bad boy or girl or hey who knows it's 2023 probably identifies as a horse the progress since Optimus bot was first unveiled is stunning it's gone from clunky as early prototype to incredible balance look at this half the people watching couldn't do this without falling flat on their face try it there pause the video pull this pose off now and obviously if you do a bit of yoga different story but everyone else is going to have a hard time with this this really is a holy moment for two massive reasons what we've just seen was a humanoid robot an intelligent humanoid robot it's probably surpassed an average alt seller already still a long way to go though train purely on end-to-end video capable of learning tasks just like a human as I mentioned end to end is the ultimate path to superhuman capabilities for both FSD slash autonomy and the humanoid robot prior to then there's still a lot of unknown unknowns now the path is clearly lit don't get me wrong it'll still take data in time and plenty of training compute the degree of uncertainty as to whether or not this can be accomplished now seems it's just a matter of time so key takeaway number one no heuristics holy and number two in fact allow me to refer to a post I made on X when it was still called Twitter responding to an early iteration of the Optimus hands superhuman ability is The Benchmark I am not joking about this it is the ultimate execution combining everything that matters in a useful hand and I really am not joking back to the demo does anybody notice anything that might indicate that Optimus is on the verge of being able to deliver a superhuman hand job not that that's the only thing that matters nor the primary intent of this but but there is no better Benchmark for the ability to manipulate objects right I mean if I'm wrong please what is a better Benchmark than that seriously and a side note isn't going to be ironic a lot of Tesla short sellers will ultimately end up with their own Optimist spot for well I'm sure you can fill in the blanks I'm absolutely stunned at how delicate and dexterous the Optimus hand is already now there's still plenty of room to go but there's a lack of clunkiness here this really matters as I mentioned the Big Challenge other than Vision which Tes is already mostly solved was the hand Tesla now has the two necessary pieces of the puzzle to make this thing useful at scale oh but I remember Tesla is just a car company and the Bots obviously just a stock pump that they don't actually intend on producing so before we get to the numbers let's just take a quick moment here because I really want this point to sink in this is insanely bullish the two ingredients necessary for massively expanding the global labor market with useful humanoid robots One Vision as in perception planning and action this is almost solved thanks to Tesla first developing this in their vehicles and now being able to transplant it into the humanoid robot the shift to end-to-end video training is a massive Milestone and completely blows it open it's now just a matter of more data more training and more time no more roadblocks no more local maximums at least not that I'm aware of and number two superhuman hand job capability this clearly is approaching fast the demo shows incredible dexterity soft touch and the ability to manipulate objects with more training it's only a matter of time and the rate of progress on Optimus spot is insane what was it like two years ago this thing was first unveiled really clunky demo couldn't even stand up on its own and now this doing yoga poses and manipulating objects better than a toddler don't sleep on Tesla Bot Optimus changes everything and I mean everything whenever I encounter somebody with SPS I like to show them this graphic we're looking at world GDP over the last two Millennia clearly it's a bubble and it's going to pop right look nothing can go up like that forever it's a bubble how do we short world GDP idiots seriously now this is a linear chart let's change it to log ready it looks almost the the same this is very important because often we're going to get to the numbers in a moment and some of you are going to have a gut reaction bro you're talking about that's impossible don't you know and then you're gonna start thinking the GDP of this country is only this much the GDP of the world is only this much that's impossible that could never possibly happen what we are seeing right now is innovation progress population growth and ultimately useful labor distilled into a single chart technology has allowed us to be much more useful much more productive spread of knowledge technology and so on and a growing world population okay these are the factors that have driven world GDP to go full vertical over the last two thousand years so when we start talking numbers if your intuition is that's not possible and then you start trying to compare to things that have occurred in the past I just want you to remember this on screen now let it sink in and be prepared then to tell me exactly where on this chart this trend is going to reverse so let's talk numbers speaking of if you're a supporter on patreon at the investor level and above you'll already know the numbers at least some of the scenarios I believe are possible because the Tesla bot has been in my valuation model from day one if you'd like to follow along now pause the video head over to patreon join at the investor level and above download a copy and we can run through it together this is of course the very same valuation model that from day one in 2021 when first published had Tesla FSD licensing which we now know is a thing Tesla has now confirmed that they've been talks with the major automotive manufacturer to license FSD and now Elon is on the record saying we will license FSD to others if they want it what a coincidence the same valuation model that also had the first has a robo taxi beginning operation in 2024 and I still believe we are on track that estimate remains unchanged of course I also had the first Tesla bot sales occurring in that valuation model but if you want to know exactly when that is well you'll have to head over to patreon but I can tell you based on this latest development my estimate remains unchanged what a coincidence must have been another lucky guess for real though if you want to see some of these assumptions check out the valuation model and just before we look at these numbers remember in Walter isaacson's recent biography of Elon Musk Walter disclosed that Elon in conversation with Walter not Elon telling Walter hey put this in the book he was just casually mentioning to Walter that he believes in the future Tesla the company will be doing one trillion dollars in annual profits not Revenue profits one trillion dollars in annual profits which lines up perfectly with my own estimates what a surprise again please see my valuation model oh so that's why he's buying Tesla stock with every spare Cent I finally figured it out because he thinks the Tesla bot's actually real what a dumbass so let's look at some hypothetical numbers and just for the record the numbers we're going to look through here aren't actual estimates if you want to see what I actually believe in the bear case the base case the bookcase and the hyper bull case scenario head over to patreon join at the investor level and above them have a peek at my test evaluation model I just want to illustrate a point the significant impact a useful humanoid robot could have not only on the world but obviously as a result on Tesla's bottom line imagine in a single year Tesla sells 1 million useful humanoid robots each for twenty five thousand dollars a pop simple math on that that's 25 billion dollars in Revenue assuming a 25 percent right price margin on the hardware the bot itself that's 6.3 billion dollars in gross profit and will also assume that Tesla's been selling Bots for a while they didn't just make a million in year one meaning there's a bot Fleet in total of 10 million Tesla bots in action each paying 200 per month for AGI and yes by the way this will be necessary a robot without software very expensive paperweight and or something for the teslaq virgins to soothe their loneliness with let's leave it at that so everyone who buys a Tesla bot is going to subscribe to the software package to enhance its capabilities and its capabilities will improve and get better over time I'm calling this AGI because ultimately that's what it will become just like Tesla's full self-driving it's been called Full self driving from day one even before it was capable of fully self-driving don't be surprised if this is the actual product name so over 200 per month a fleet of 10 million users each paying 200 bucks per month 12 months for the year that's 24 billion dollars in revenue from the software 24 billion assuming an 80 gross margin on the software I mean it is after all the software I think this could actually be on the low side it could be actually closer to 90 plus percent maybe a 95 or more the AGI gross profit almost 20 billion dollars total revenue is nearly 50 billion total gross profit about 25 billion and for the purposes of this back of the envelope model I'm using a net profit of 75 of gross profit to account for some expenses along the way net profit almost 20 billion dollars based on a fleet of just 10 million Bots including 1 million bot sales that year now let's see how ridiculous things get by the way 19 billion dollars is more profit than Tesla will make this year imagine 10 million bot sales all the numbers are the same except the fleet has scaled to 100 million useful Tesla Bots and by the way at some point this is inevitable just like at some point it's inevitable Tesla will have over 100 million vehicles on roads just a matter of when not if but when skipping to the juicy part we're looking at close to 200 billion dollars in net profit should I do the next one you damn me yeah let's do it now I know a lot of people are freaking out again these these are not my actual estimates I am just trying to make a point however oh and again if you want to see my actual estimates that's what the Tes evaluation model is for let's see what happens just hypothetically and remember solve AGI or close to it and can produce a useful humanoid robot that can do useful labor remember that earlier example of world GDP over time useful labor is a limiting factor to productivity I personally believe that should Tesla solve this and actually be able to produce a useful humanoid robot that can do useful labor in theory they could literally sell late for it billions per year and again I know people are freaking out feel free to laugh me off the internet but please explain to me why from first principles that is not true please just tell me why there are already billions of humans today providing use for labor and if they were more humans there would be more humans doing useful things let's do the next number make sure you've got something to clean up with a fleet of 1 billion Tesla humanoid robots including sales of 100 million a year and again when could it be possible that Tesla could have a billion humanoid robots out there skip again to the juicy part that's nearly two trillion dollars in net profit now again this isn't a prediction of what will happen but I tell you what if Tesla could produce 100 million of these things in a single year they would sell the them and they would have a fleet obviously well in excess of 100 million since that was just one year of sales okay and now for the really fun part again I'm not saying this is going to happen but what if it does and you'll notice I don't have any dates here I'm not making predictions about the exact timing but for fun let's just do it it's so ridiculous just imagine there's approximately one Tesla humanoid robot for every one human on earth today roughly a fleet size of 10 billion humanoid robots now is this out of the question I don't think so I think that most humans would find use for a humanoid robot companion Nanny babysitter someone to do with errands cook clean maybe even clean the pipes not judging this is definitely a possibility although far from a certainty but just imagine that there's roughly a one-to-one ratio of humans to bots keeping in mind best estimates for human population it's likely to Plateau somewhere around that 10 billion humans currently about eight so just a one to one ratio that's the way to think about it one humanoid robot for every one human that'd be 10 billion net profit of almost 20 trillion dollars that's impossible don't you understand wheelchair DP remember I knew that was going to happen and yeah I ain't saying this is what will occur I'm just saying what if it does what if something close to this happens what if at some point Tesla gets to 10 million bot sales per year after all they're already around 2 million vehicle sales per year no one thought that was possible they're aim for 20 and unlike Vehicles where there's a finite number of vehicles needed because there's finite number of people and Miles traveled humanoid robots that can do useful labor completely upend this there's no limit if they provide useful labor these things expand the global labor market they create their own Market it's very important to understand that if you're a business owner let's just say hypothetically you buy for 25 Grand cost you another 1200 bucks so call it all in less than thirty thousand dollars for the hardware and the first year of AGI and then after that you're not paying for the hardware again it's just a monthly subscription just over a thousand dollars for something that can do use for labor compared to hiring a person maybe you're paying them 75 80 000 a hundred thousand dollars all in per year do the math if it can do useful labor can work two to three shifts in a single day versus a human who can only do about 8 hours doesn't need brakes Etc people will be buying these things hand over fist and imagine how useful these things will be in aged care and what about as a nanny babysitter cook Chef housekeeper bro the potential of this thing is absolutely ridiculous decades from now although many folks watching won't be this video will still be around my closing message don't sleep on Tesla bot this thing if successful will utterly dwarf every other aspect of Tesla's business yes that includes autonomy Robo taxis energy and the vehicle business itself in fact if successful Tesla's humanoid robot will be the biggest disruption since language I tell you what these things would be pretty useful for building out a colony on another planet too there is a reason I continue to buy Tesla stock with every spare Cent having call options on stuff like a humanoid robot bro I don't know where else to find a better risk-adjusted opportunity but hey that's just me keep an eye on the rate of progress on Tesla's humanoid robot I think it's going to surprise and remember if if you'd like to see my actual assumptions in the bear case the base case the bookcase and even the hyper bull case for Tesla's humanoid robot at least over this decade head over to patreon join at the investor level and above and have a look at the valuation model that's what it's there for athletic greens81 has given me a massive meaningful boost in energy allowing me to do a lot more every day including using my brain more and using my body more I highly recommend you guys and girls check it out athletic greens81 is an excellent way to fill in nutritional gaps it's got 75 high quality vitamins and minerals and Whole Foods Source nutrients plus prebiotics and probiotics and digestive enzymes and adaptogens to help you deal with stress plus if you click the link in the pin comment or head to drink ag1.com SMR you can get yourself a one year free supply of vitamin D3 and K2 but don't take my word for it here's what some of you guys and girls have to say ag1 has changed my life I was as you described treating myself like a circus eight like trash really exercised use alcohol as a stress crutch cannabis also ag1 is what gave me the kick in the ass got me back to the gym motivated me to do more for myself family my business and Etc keep doing what you do now I know there's some Skeptics the same kind of people who think Elon Musk is a fraud reading this guy what do you thought there's no way that's possible bro it must be a placebo effect believe it or not this is a recurring theme if you give your body everything it needs to feel and perform its best including having a lot more energy you'll need ways to use that energy for me personally that includes more exercise moving my body more more social activity and more cognitively demanding tasks including producing a ton of exclusive content over on Twitter and on patreon plus my daily YouTube uploads the proofs in the pudding on to another testimonial from a viewer of this channel SMR you asked me to provide feedback on ag1 here it is it has helped with mental acuity stamina and intestinal Waste Management uh can't read between the lines certainly helps with regularity and digestion that's what the digestive enzymes are for it is also dramatically reduced my cravings for sugar you guys need to stop eating sugar it's poison I'm 50 5 9 and overweight AKA a fat I think that's a technical term for overweight isn't it is it fat or obese okay remember I average 100 hours a week in the west Texas oil fields as a safety supervisor Jesus Christ dude no wonder you're struggling to keep your weight under control 100 hours a week brutal it has helped me lose weight it is not an appetite suppressant it can help fat people suppress cravings and motivation to be healthier is critical for changing your diet love you brother again this is a great point and something people really don't seem to grasp if you have more energy everything becomes easier it's like turning on easy mode for Life a few years ago before I was taking ag1 my health was trash I was struggling to get through the day had afternoon fatigue the last thing I wanted to do was either use my brain or move my body didn't have the energy now my biggest struggle every day is figuring out ways to use that energy I'm exercising way more doing a lot more with my friends and family and of course my work output has increased substantially and you can fact check me check out the average length of my videos I was posting to YouTube three years ago Neato say more and one final testimonial love this one okay here's the deal for me with this ag1 I'm 41 years old and not the type to eat drink smoke or sleep healthy so I was skeptical that being said here's what I experienced day one meh day two afternoon fatigue was about 45 minutes late day three zero afternoon fatigue day four zero afternoon fatigue plus extra energy day five again zero afternoon fatigue plus energy wondering what the really see this is the thing right there is also many people are just almost too good to be true this is the same experience I had my afternoon fatigue just finished out of nowhere I'm like wait what the why am I not tired in the afternoons anymore surely it's not that easy one is it turns out it was day six and seven same thing day eight same thing plus I had the want to get things done around the house that I normally would slack off and not get done again the point extra energy you'll need to use it you'll find ways to use it day 9 10 and 11 and today is day 12. I love it so however you manage to get me to buy it I'm so glad you did thank you so much SMR it really changed me so far guys this really works just try it by the way this is the reason I continue to relentlessly promote ag1 a lot of people get real mad in the comments oh my God snickle salmon sold out oh my God he's a scammer this is fraudible constantly I'm pretty sure everyone making these comments is also currently short Tesla stock I'm not particularly concerned about people having a negative perception those folks suffering from small brain syndrome still living in my bumps basement syndrome Etc writing mean comments claiming ag1's a scam or it doesn't work I mean bro when I get feedback like this this is what keeps me going and remember there is a 90-day money-back guarantee there's nothing to lose here just try this stuff for a month and if you don't get these results get your money back see it's a literal no-brainer it's an IQ test at this point in time testimonial after testimonial after testimonial like this get your money back if it doesn't just try it for a month and if it doesn't work get your money back today's the day it's finally time be like this guy he was a massive skeptic but finally after a thousand promotions in a row caved in tried ag1 and has results like this head to drink ag1.com SMR or click the link at the pinned comment and please let me know how you're feeling in a few weeks time now if you'll excuse me time to put my extra energy to good use I'll be recording some more exclusive content for page and my Twitter subscribers so click the links to pin comment see you over on Twitter and or patreon and don't forget to grab your ag1 love you
