let's make sense of all these headlines with Fred Kemp he's president and CEO of the Atlantic Council let's start with musk Fred why not uh geopolitics are now the order of the day for him I guess yeah so uh it's uh rainy it's gridlocked in New York must be the UN General Assembly but for all the heads of state you have around here everyone seems to want to meet with Alon musk you know he's got six gig factories four in the US uh one in Germany um and uh and one in China and he's looking at Mexico so he talked to erdogan erdogan would like to have one of these you've got the French the Spanish and the Italians talking him India may be May figure in this um but uh turkeyy is really interesting because it's had a hundred-year history with Ford it manufactures has a big population itself it's it's used to automobile manufacturing it can ship to third countries uh so that could have some that that these talks could have some likes in 2022 Elon Musk made a very bullish prediction for Tesla and today it's one of the most major reasons as to why investors are optimistic about their Tesla investment join us as we explore Tesla's biggest production Target and how the automaker will achieve this incredible feat Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is on record for proposing that the electric car company could produce as many as 20 million EVS by 2030 in 2014 Tesla made 35,000 cars and it has ambitious plans to get to 20 million Vehicles by the year end of 2030 that take 571 times increase in vehicle production in 17 years the truth is even at a 2 million vehicle per year run rates if Tesla does get there this year then that will be a 57-fold increase in vehicle production from 10 years so the 2030 Target does seem pretty unreal but in reality it's actually quite an achievable feat in this video we're going to explore the possibility of Tesla manufacturing up to 20 million EVS by 2030 and several factors that will make that a reality let's dive in with can oford genuity George how much does this strike of the UAW against what we call the big three um benefit potentially non-union makers especially Tesla well we think that this strike could have a positive impact on companies like Tesla and even rivan because they don't have unions that they employ and also you know to the extent people need vehicles and they can't get them well there's an alternative you could get a Tesla you can get a rivan and we happen to think that despite certain price discrepancies uh electric vehicles are just better performing Vehicles so to the extent that this strike lasts longer it could benefit electric vehicle adoption in the two companies we we cover Tesla and Rivia does it benefit the other manufacturers that are nonunion but operate in the United States Mercedes BMW to Toyota Etc certainly we don't cover those but they could certainly have a positive impact on them as well although it's weird George because a lot of the EV names are down today yeah I mean look they've already people had anticipated this positive impact uh that that they could have and you know the the negotiations are fluid and dayto day we don't really track the performance and who knows what's impacting the stocks right from one minute to the next but you know over an extended period of time we think that the these EV upstarts including Tesla and rivan should take market share and given their new found infrastructure and their ability to build a vehicle from clean sheet of paper should positively impact their results the 20 million number does have some basis in reality there's roughly two billion vehicles on the road today and they will all need to be replaced by electrically powered vehicles if climate change is to be controlled musk has said that replacing just 1% of these two billion vehicles per year means that there's going to be around 20 million EVs and his goal is for those to all be made by Tesla already Tesla cars make up around a third of all EVS built today much more than the production of companies like Toyota and Volkswagen combined hey guys welcome back to Tesla tomorrow Tesla's gigafactory Nevada was built in 2014 and it's now fully functional the automaker only had a 500,000 vehicle goal by 2020 and that happened with only the model 3 and model y even though there were many skeptical that Tesla could never achieve this that was a 14-fold increase in just 6 years applying that same logic today to get to 20 million Vehicles by 2030 that means that Tesla needs to have an 11-fold increase in 7 years with 1.8 million Vehicles this year which honestly is still very conservative So based on Tesla's growth in the past we believe it should be able to reach its 2030 goal Tesla can go 25% lower and still reach this 20 million vehicle call per year goal however there are several things that the automaker does have to put in place let's see what some of them are but before we do if you like this type of content hit that like button subscribe and turn on post notifications to keep up to date on everything going on with Tesla for Tesla to actually produce up to 20 million cars by 2030 it's got to manufacture more vehicles to be precise more types not just cars even Elon Musk has said that that 20 million EV Target can be reached with 10 vehicle models Tesla expects its cyber truck pickup truck to begin production before the end of 2023 in the Austin gigafactory and its heavyduty semi-truck has entered pilot production in Nevada the automaker has already disclosed plans that a Next Generation lower cost vehicle is going to be produced in NADA and Mexico but the timing is a bit sketchy on this new product to reach 20 million cars per year Tesla needs to develop several new car models with a Model S at 11 years old and the model X at 6 years old both a due for a replacement or at least significant updates already the Next Generation vehicle cybertruck and the semi are already under development so if Tesla can make more cars then it will maybe meet up with this target even 7 years from now similarly Tesla's production facilities or gigafactories are going to be critical in order for considering this number assuming that each of these existing gigafactories and the new Mexican Factory could make up to 1 million car by 2030 each year then the total would only be around 6 million and historically it took Tesla about 3 years to go from its announcement to building cars at a new location while commendable to reach 20 million by 2030 it means that Tesla needs to build at least 12 to 14 new Giga factories between now and next year in locations yet to be announced to meet a 230 time frame all those factories will need to be underway before 2027 4 years from now interestingly since Tesla's nextg vehicles are going to have a smaller footprint production and improvements should be faster than that of regular Tesla cars let's talk about the raw minerals needed too and materials as well and by this we mean the amount of raw materials available for lithium ion battery production in 2030 lithium production is one of the primary concerns as carmakers worldwide are scrambling to meet their anticipated needs with long-term contracts and the purchase of mining companies to ensure their supply why already Tesla is a strong competitor here but if it expects to build a third of the world's vehicles in 2030 it's going to need to scoop up most of the world's battery supplies and that includes the raw material supply while battery technologies that use fewer materials to produce the same energy are under development they're not going to be mainstreamed by 2030 but you ask what about demand will there be enough people in the world that want a Tesla in 2030 well we assume there's going to be since Supply is simply the given price a consumer is willing to buy a product for Elon Musk said at Tesla's invest today that the desire for people to own a Tesla is high people want it but they just can't afford one and for this reason Tesla is trying to lower costs and make its cars more affordable the automaker has found that pricing is extremely important and that small price decreases greatly increase demand there is also an exponential increase in affordability as a car price approaches $20,000 at that price point nearly 100% of people in the US can afford a Tesla as well as in many places around the world so the demand shouldn't really be a problem for Tesla no doubt 20 million cars by 2030 does seem like an impossible mission for Tesla however it's important to know that Elon Musk should he choose to accept it has made it clear that this is more of an aspirational goal than a hard fast number and we're not expecting too much from this automaker time will tell how Tesla does and it's going to be interesting to see but what do you think let us know down below and if you want to know more about what tesel has been up to over the last few days go ahead and click on this next video on your screen see you there
