we're at 8 30 Eastern I expect this day to hit the wire and it is well let's start out with the employment cost index for the second quarter expecting 1.1 percent very close to that up one percent just to give you an idea this series goes back to 1996 the high water mark forever there going back to record keeping was 1.4 and that was in the first quarter of 22. so even though we are down it goes down pretty slowly now if you look at a personal income a path one percent expected we end up with up three tenths of one percent if you look at personal spending expected up four tenths it's up a little better at up five tenths of one percent and there are revisions income last month move from 0.4 to 0.5 which makes this a deterioration of 210 spending ramped up also by a tenth from point one to point two which makes point five up three tens from our last look now real spending accounting for inflation nation is up a solid four tenths and four tenths is pretty good on the real side considering in the rear view mirror is up one tenth that's a slight revision this is the second best number of the Year outside of January where it was 1.3 now if we're looking for the Money Ball numbers here they come everybody personal consumption expenditure deflator month over month expected up two tens arrives at exactly up two tens the high water mark there was up one percent in June of 22 and that was the highest level since 1980. if we look at that same number on a year-over-year basis it was expected to be up three percent it is up three percent people would have liked to have seen the two handle here but boy that's as close as you can get to it to handle without having a two handle and three percent actually is the lowest level going back to March of 21 in between there the high water mark was seven percent in June of 22 that went back to 1981. now these really we are the the favorites because these are the core personal assumption core deflator month over month expected up two tens is up two tenths exactly as expected the high water mark there was April of 21 where it was up 0.63 that was the highest since 2001 and finally year over year personal consumption expenditure core deflator expected to be up 4.2 it's up 4.1 if you recall many on our fed panel were saying they'd like to see a three handle here didn't quite make it 4.1 however 4.1 still is the lowest level going back to September of 21 when it was 3.91 so that's pretty nice progress from 4.6 which remains unrevised what does the market think it really hasn't moved a whole lot on these numbers the equities though have held gains and on the interest rate front we are below four percent which was the peak based on some of those stories yesterday that were out there on the bank of Japan potentially tweaking potentially normalizing and it was hard to decipher some of that I think our contributor Peter bookvar because a lot of that news hit the wires the same time are really nasty seven-year note auction hit so there was a lot of volatility around one Eastern yesterday
