today was a really busy Tesla stock news day I'll go through all of today's Tesla stock news the markets are up but Tesla stock is down it was down almost four percent at one point but it seems to be coming back now I think this is because of some of the bad news that I will go through in just a moment we also got an analyst lowering his Tesla stock price Target but we also do have a few good Tesla stock news stories a Tesla mega pack catches on fire in Queensland which is in Australia it caught fire last night during its commissioning process it was a minor fire and the fire was contained within a single mega pack 2.0 module no other mega pack modules were affected and the site was promptly disconnected from the grid so it was only one mega pack and it was during a commissioning process so I don't see this as a big deal Ross Gerber just saw the tiny little bit of Tesla stock it is still his number one position the Indian government says they are in touch with Tesla to consider setting up a Manufacturing facility in the country so that's good news Tesla has officially launched its extended warranty program in Canada for owners of the model S model 3 Model X and model y this new extended warranty program was first launched in the US in March but has now expanded north of the Border we Canadians we always get everything late here the fast lane truck tested the upcoming Silverado EVS range they towed a 6500 pound trailer and in the beginning of a trip the range was at 475 miles in the end the electric truck drove 232 miles on a single charge with 15 miles of range remaining the average energy consumption was 1.1 kilowatt hours per mile I can't wait for the final cyber truck specs then we can compare side to side right as a candy reports that Tesla owners who purchased their hardware for a clip Model S X or Y with a referral code are seeing the free trial of FSD beta extended beyond the initial three month trial period what Tesla has done here is to those that purchased the vehicle with new hardware it's extending fossil driving beta because it promised three months of full cell driving but actually at first fossil driving did not work on Hardware 4 so now they just extended it by a little bit so they actually get the full three months of free fossil driving that was initially promised production delivery report for Q3 is next week this report usually drops on the second day of the month which would be a Monday but it has dropped on Sundays forever so this will be interesting to see what is actually going to happen uh James is still at 440 000 with an outside shot at 445 000. he will update his income statement forecast once we have final numbers Joe attackmeyer has a Texas update for us he saw a 50 model ycn this new Cyber truck Kia has announced that its new three-row ev9 electric SUV will start at 55 000 when it goes on sale in the US later this year and it can go up to 300 miles but the 55 000 version only gets 223 miles of range the Lee County Sheriff's department has announced a Tesla pilot program there are now 20 model wides and model 3s in the fleet and the department said the program will maximize cost Savings of 50 or more per vehicle annually this is a big deal I know it's only 20 vehicles but we see more and more of this happening everywhere and it adds up so the government institutions are actually looking to save some money and it's an easy sell for Tesla to get these vehicles to them it's a bit difficult to argue against having a better vehicle and then actually saving money in the long term there is a cautious note from Deutsche Bank this morning they cut their Tesla style price Target from 300 to 200 85 dollars but they still have a buy rating for Tesla stock Deutsche Bank predicts downside earnings risk for 2024 the analysts also reduced their Q3 2023 estimates to 440 000 six percent down from its previous estimate of 455 000. for the year we expect Tesla to reiterate this 1.8 million deliveries targets suggesting sequentially improving production run rate as well as deliveries likely with better cost efficiencies attached and higher margins in Q4 versus Q3 together with first cyber truck still scheduled to be delivered in Q4 we believed has this message could be optimistic about next quarter looking at 2024 however we see considerable downside risk to earnings expectations due to a much lower volume Outlook than the market believes on the bright side with the company not trying to push as much volume there could potentially be less pricing pressure next year the the Investment Bank forecast that Tesla's total deliveries next year will be around 2.1 million units below the market consensus of 2.3 million deliveries I expect Tesla to do better than that next year I share my number in my valation model which you can access on patreon by clicking on the link down below there is an article on Barons about why Tesla material Miss on Q3 deliveries is likely discounted one reason that was given for that in this article was that Troy's estimate is lower and perhaps it's implying that his private estimate which is only available on patreon is even lower than the public one but a lot of Wall Street analysts actually are subscribed to Troy on patreon in at least to some extent it is certainly reasonable to expect that a lot of these lower estimates are already built into the stock price even though the consensus overall has not really come down yet but in one of the latest videos I did share how this one research firm had a public estimate that is is still relatively high but they said that they will basically lower it but they just haven't done it yet we got some news from China basically when you buy an EV in China your taxes are a little bit lower when you buy it but they are going to reduce the amount of tax that you would not have to pay if you are going to be buying a model y performance or a model S or X because these vehicles are more expensive so they are actually reducing that and the new rules start on January 1st of next year it was a bit confusing looking at the story at first because it seemed like maybe all EVS would be affected but because model 3 versions and model y rear wheel drive and long range for example are not really all that expensive they're actually not affected at all it's only the really expensive models that will be affected by this change high paid times is reporting that their Island will not be able to evaluate the safety of the Tesla Model 3 until next year is the popular car is out of stock they actually dispatch secret buyers to purchase cars at random from dealers for testing so that there's no trickery involved this Ford Model got a 5 star rating from NCAP but when it was tested in the island it only got a three-star rating I really welcome more testing because it just brings more proof the Teslas are incredibly safe now the Tesla Model 3 would be the first electric vehicle undergoing a safety evaluation and the testing is scheduled to take place during the first quarter next year but we have had trouble buying the car from dealers as it is currently out of stock Taipei Times right does this mean that Tesla cannot sell vehicles in the island anymore I don't think so it just seems that they just want to test it while in the meantime Tesla can continue business as normal Tesla is working on an upgrade of its gear casting technology to Die Cast almost all vehicle underbody parts in one piece the high Securities news reported on Wednesday Today citing unnamed sources close to the automaker if this is true this will be huge and good news the state-owned Chinese newspaper which base its report after a recent visit to Tesla Shanghai Factory did not say when and where the upgrade will happen however Sawyer says that this Reuters report that just came out is wrong he says I read the Shanghai Securities news report and it just said Tesla was using rear Giga castings which they have been doing for a long time there it said nothing about gigashan high now switching to front Giga castings nor anything about any other new cost cutting measure so what is going on here we need to get to the original source so I found CN EV post which I believe has writers that speak fluent Chinese and they have a link to the original original source which takes me to this website which should be the actual original source and here is the article and it says Tesla is accelerating Innovation and upgrading the integrated die casting technology to version 2.0 die casting almost all complex underbody components of electric vehicles into a hole so he did specifically mention the underbody and just to make sure that Google did not give me completely incorrect translation I went back to the cnev post where I assume a native Chinese speaker double checked the translation and it still says Tesla's accelerating Innovation by upgrading its integrated die casting technology to version 2.0 which die casts nearly all of an electric vehicles complex under body parts into a single unit this does not seem to be just the Giga rear casting and perhaps this is where all of this confusion is coming from the newspapers reporter visited Tesla's Factory in Shanghai where the model wise rear underbody structure is already being produced using integrated die casting technology for Rapid casting according to the report so this specifically later says that right now currently ready yes we are doing the rear but in the beginning of the article they talk about version 2.0 which Die Cast nearly all of an electric vehicle's complex underbody Parts into a single unit this does not mention that it is just the rear and then even more confusion came from this later part in the article which talks specifically actually about the rear underbody and not the whole underbody but some people thought that this is about the whole underbody being cast no this is just the rear but this is what the benefit is the new approach allows the body system to save more than 10 in weight compared to traditional Methods at the same time the technology offers significant cost advantages as the cost that the rear floor assembly has been reduced by 40 percent as the car was built using one piece die casting if you found this useful you may want to subscribe right now this took quite a lot of time going back and forth between all of the sources the European Union launches a probe into China's EV subsidies targeting Tesla and European car makers while the investigation initially targeted Chinese CV Brands dombrovskis clarified that it could extend to cover other foreign producers if they are found to be benefiting from production side subsidies this implies that the pro would include Brands such as Tesla which builds the model 3 and model y cars at Shanghai destined for some EU Market I don't think Tesla is getting any additional subsidies from the Chinese government but I'm not sure about these other EV brands in China Troy has new DMV win date until September 25th it shows that there was a six day production pause in the beginning of this quarter in that production also was suspended on September 6 in that Q3 production is likely less than 21 000 units you can see all of this clearly from this chart yesterday I reported that Volkswagen pause production for its two EV models but I agree with Farzad here Legacy automakers will claim if he demand this softening although this may be true due to interest rates and a high cost for what you get their relative market share is being eaten up by Tesla rivian and Chinese automakers the market is there they need to make good products that's all they need to do we are now starting to feel the impact of the strike Auto suppliers urged Biden to provide federal financial assistance to address the strike Elon Musk commented on the matter he says they want a 40 pay raise and a 32 Hour Work Week sure way to drive gm4 and Chrysler bankrupt in the fast lane so lawyer says I believe that when Biden said UAW members should get a 40 raise that he didn't fully understand the negative consequences this decision would have on GM Ford insulantis if these Automotive companies end up going bankrupt as a result it could mean that no UAW member will have job security anymore there are almost 400 000 UAW union members which means if he doesn't support the union he is at risk of losing hundreds of thousands of votes from the union UAW you saved the automobile industry back in 2008 and before made a lot of sacrifices gave up a lot and the companies were in trouble but now they're doing incredibly well back in 2008 the president announced a 17.4 billion dollar bailout to General Motors and Chrysler of which 13.4 billion would be extended immediately without federal aid GM and Chrysler warned they faced bankruptcy and the loss of 1 million jobs so did the workers that were about to lose their jobs did they save GM and Chrysler or was it the taxpayer who saved GM and Chrysler Wall Street Journal rights does the Biden Administration have it in for Elon Musk the Tesla CEO faces a remarkable number of government probes Elon says sure it seems that way what striking workers get wrong about automaker profits a story from Yahoo any amount of profitability is meaningless unless compared with that of competitors and next to other big automakers plus up Stars such as Tesla the Detroit 3 don't look nearly so rich on profit margin Tesla beats them all with a 15.4 percent margin in 2022 compared with 9.4 percent for stalantis 6.3 for GM and minus 1.3 for Ford which had a small loss in 2022. here's some pretty interesting research about Ford and UAW Ford's Automotive business generated on average only 0 0.9 billion dollars of free cash flow over the past 10 years and the company's total revenue has been shrinking in real terms along an average vehicle sales decline of nearly five percent this implies that any expense increase of more than fifteen thousand dollars per UAW worker would have netted Ford shareholders zero cash from the automotive business which is in structural Decline and the workers want a 40 increase so if you have a business that would stop making you money why keep operating that business then this UAW strike is really seemingly going to benefit Tesla by accelerating the collapse of 4gm and stalantis Tesla has filed to build a 10 million dollar cyber cafeteria at Giga taxes construction is expected to be completed by April of 2024. it will be 22 000 square feet so it's going to be huge this is great news for us Tesla stock investors Ryan says it's a funny story my neighbor buys the model X receives the three month FSD trial suddenly the trial ends the neighbor is now complaining her life was much better with FSD autopilot is just not enough and she is already planning to buy FSD outright in the coming year I think our time we will start to hear more and more and more stories like this I haven't really heard any stories like this until recently but I saw another somewhat similar one yesterday so it is becoming more common in an EV sale Fiesta Hyundai and Kia plan to cut prices on several electric vehicles amid an ongoing price war in Korea the planned AV price because will run until the end of the year which is exactly when they will turn into probably permanent price cuts it is not just Tesla cutting price it's just that Tesla has the most real-time data so therefore Tesla is the first one to cut prices and remember this from Hyundai Hyundai one take a knee jerk reaction to Tesla's price Scott says the CEO the European CEO how is that turning out Baron's test growth has a self-driving software for a month and here's what they discovered they are basically saying that FSD is great but not perfect but question is when will it be perfect or almost perfect I saw a lot of news about this story hands off with the first true hands-free car in the US and it's not Tesla it's a Mercedes but it's only designed to drive on a straight road with no curves with a lead car to follow and under 40 miles per hour although supposedly you can only drive on highway so yeah you need to find a highway first where you can drive under 40 miles an hour oh and also the weather has to be good the road conditions have to be good and it has to be in a well-mapped area it also does not change lanes and it of course uses lidar so this is not a threat to Tesla at all this is a 340 thousand dollar Eva from Cadillac and this is the Frank for a moment I thought maybe this is just a cover but no I think that's an actual front it is almost as useful as a Tesla stock price Target from Gordon Jones although I guess you could put something in there like a manual for the car or something like that that you sort of need to have in the car but you want to save space and you never actually need to access it almost ever Fisker has now built 5000 ocean electric SUVs about 2 000 of those were built in the last three weeks production originally began in November of 2022. rivienne and Fiskars dogs jump on optimistic EV delivery expectations it jumped as much as seven percent almost for a moment here on this new electric sports car will debut in next month hinting at an NSX successor EV Honda is late to the game they better hurry up good news here London city council approved the zoning amendment in a 13-2 vote this afternoon Paving the way for Tesla to build their 50 000 square foot service and enter more service centers means more Tesla sales because if you don't have good service the sales are not going to be as good ribbian CEO says customers for Ruby and struck and Tesla cyber truck won't overlap well we will soon find out the Starbucks are coming out soon is certainly not a good thing for rivian I always have some good Insight here I think Optimus only uses energy to close its hand grip and grip things the fingers spring open automatically when no power is consumed so this Motion makes perfect sense quite possible it also makes sense for the default state to be fully open as gripping anything from that point requires only closure of grip to some degree we have quite a few people saying that this car the Tesla one was on full cell driving and there are some people complaining that then Tesla is on fossil driving it acts like this where it waits until the very end to actually enter the highway which can be quite dangerous as you can see here and instead it should try to get in the lane as soon and as quickly as possible I haven't found any proof that shows that the car was on full self driving but it's certainly possible Omar has an update about the new sfsd beta version he says wow I did not expect this new version to be such a big Improvement you can feel it right away just roll around for 10 to 15 minutes and it did everything perfectly look at how smoothly it went around this stopped bus 10 out of 10 Tesla team 10 out of 10 and this is still version 11. let's see how the Tesla car handled the situation from start to finish so all of the cars are passing by it's waiting for an opening the car in the front starts moving but it's not changing the lane and then Tesla takes initiative and it just goes indeed very smooth very well done and this was Omar's 13 minute drive with zero interventions this was his first drive on this new version this is actually relevant to us Tesla stock investors the German and the largest shareholder of ever Grande have just been detained by the Chinese government earlier today the CEO and CFO of China's second largest property developer ever Grande who recently filed for bankruptcy were also detained by the Chinese government this was actually yesterday night eastern U.S time China's economy does not seem to be doing exactly great and that could slow Tesla sales down and especially sales of Tesla's competitors in China's real estate stock index just fell to its lowest level since 2011. seemingly there was a recovery right here but after that it was all downhill here's another piece of evidence that's just that the sabarak is coming very soon you can see these sensors there and I believe these are for ground truth testing in other words to validate the information gathered by the vehicle's cameras with what is being seen by the lighter sensors although Tesla has only a 1.9 market share in terms of global vehicle sales Tesla takes 6.8 percent of all cash this means we are seeing a situation unfolding similar to that of the smartphone world where one company Apple Pockets most of the cash despite a strong but not crazy market share relative to its share of dollars spent in the industry and yeah this is looking pretty good for Tesla Elon Musk just commented on this political story he said amazing this is about Hunter Biden suing Rudy Giuliani over the laptop Elon is getting more involved in politics Elon spoke with a Texas representative and plans to visit Eagle Pass Texas later this week to see the situation at the southern border many investors believe that Elon making political comments hurts test LA but Elon made it very clear that he will comment on whatever he wants to comment a non-profit company founded by Elon Musk of which Elon has now lost control is uh seeking evaluation of up to 90 billion dollars in the sale of existing share so uh certainly of course definitely not for profit right Elon just commented on this story this is an Apple store and these are not Apple customers these people just got in the store and they took everything they possibly could and then they ran as fast as they could the footage is quite Graphics I'm not going to play it here do you do things like that Target is now closing nine stores in major cities citing violence and theft we might see a few more Tesla stock investors from Europe going forward because for example Arc invest just acquired this ETF and maybe Arc invest will be promoting itself and therefore as a result indirectly it has a little stock a little bit more in Europe this could be possibly relevant to Tesla the Japanese prime minister said that new tax breaks will be offered for domestic investment in strategic areas such as batteries electric cars and semiconductors I haven't really heard any rumors about Tesla building anything in Japan but maybe if the government gives Tesla some big subsidies maybe that could change if you don't count the European Union as one single market then Japan is the third largest auto market in the whole world there have been a lot of news stories recently about Tesla and privacy Omar here says that Tesla data sharing screen popped up as soon as I installed the new update so I don't see any issues with all of this I think Tesla makes it pretty clear what they are doing and the message is pretty clear and easy to understand it's not some crazy legal talk that no regular person would ever understand Elon yesterday met with the the president of Hungary and there is now some talk that possibly Tesla might build something in Hungary maybe in Budapest a factory Alexandra said before that maybe Hungary possibly could make sense but I haven't heard anything credible from anywhere so far that there are some real plans for doing anything like that in Hungary at least as of right now maybe later but not right now if I hear anything I will let you all know an article from Forbes says as it stands right now cyber truck doesn't appear to meet safety regulations for pedestrians and cyclists in the European Union and probably cannot be sold there in its current form uh well I hate to point out the obvious but Tesla will start selling the Cyber truck in the US first and then they will eventually do it in Europe as well as in other markets there are so many pre-orders for the Cyber truck in the US and the US is the biggest pickup Market in the world so it makes sense to just focus on the US at first and then we can add other markets and he had just become times person of the year he'd become the richest person on the planet Tesla had made a million cars that year it had become the most valuable car company after this hell production thing he had launched that previous six was 33 Rockets into orbit and landed them upright so he could reuse the Rockets something that's still no company not NASA not Boeing not anybody or country or Russia or China can do and I said man you know and I'm thinking this is great for the book it's ending on a high and um he says I was not made for the calm I sail into the storm I've got to put my chips back on the table and every single person close to him says the times he is most uncomfortable when he's just unnerved is when everything's going well and the times that he is most energized is when all hell is breaking loose and also at the front and uh Tallulah would say I'd go at night he would stay up when things are going really bad and the stress and I'd have to hold his head as he vomited and he would Channel phrases that his father and once said to him but then during the day he was energized back in the fight and so in that period say early 2022 when things are going well he can't leave well enough alone this is another big reason why I'm so invested in Tesla stock is because if everything goes well for Tesla Tesla will do great but if things go bad leave it at some point inevitably they will go badly just a matter of time really Elon will be there energized working on the problem and then eventually fixing and solving the problem successfully which is why relatively speaking my bear case in my Tesla validation model is not really bad which is why I don't mind having my entire stop portfolio in Tesla stock you can see my barricades and the entire valiation model on patreon by clicking on the link down below he does not have a fingertip feel for human emotions what are you thinking and he said well Twitter they have not improved the product they you can't do video you can't do a payments platform and it's an engineering problem and I'm thinking as I write in the book it's not an engineering product it's a advertising medium that gathers people with human emotions with Elon being in charge of X slash Twitter it has changed a lot there's actually some good long-form content now on there there's a year ago good luck finding any good valuable long-form content on Twitter it was mostly just short Snippets of news or some outrageous talking points designed to make you feel outraged and occasionally you would find a jam here and there if you're willing to sort for all of that craziness but now I see a lot more longer form posts and longer form videos even with a lot more Nuance I like that I have some controversial thoughts about Tesla and I think it's more appropriate to share these with a smaller audience so I posted these thoughts in the newest patreon video which is exclusively available on patreon by joining my patreon you will get access to how much I think it is fair to pay per Tesla each year between 2020 3 and 2033 if you sign up for the investor tier support you will also get my valuation model of Tesla stock with a 45 minute video walkthrough and YouTube says you should watch this video next but if you haven't finished watching that discussion about the future where Elon Musk participate watch this one first thank you so much for watching my name is math Focus
