Tesla Bot u0026 The Era Of HYPER-Abundance (Video)

you are getting into areas when you're talking about AI where it's just Mass abundance on a scale we've really never seen in areas of the economy that have largely been locked because it's you know powered by humans and humans are limited uh in what they can produce a day to me the most interesting side of this what it means for the labor market or even how do you size this opportunity and I was trying to think of you know the right framework for it because most things it's pretty clear how to say what the addressable Market is it's unclear to me what the total addressable Market is if it can continue to gain humanlike skills right like what is the addressable market for humans so later in this video in case you guys don't know I record the video first and then the intro last I actually said the word quintilian just thought I'd put that out there now so you're prepared we're talking about the potential of Tesla's humanoid robot AKA Optimus possibly in fact almost certainly the biggest and Far and Away the most consequential opportunity and technology in recorded history I'm not joking AR invest have some thoughts and so do I and FYI I've just posted an ass load of exclusive content over on patreon and to my ex subscribers unique content by the way each platform totally different unique content you won't see anywhere else there's plenty more in the pipeline as well so stay tuned for more exclusive videos soon so if you want more content click the link to the pin comment we got to talk about Tesla Optimus you see that video that they released it's incredible I mean it's it's blowing my mind like where it's separating the different like like giant Lego blocks the blue and the green yeah so we'll talk talk through the video quickly uh we can throw it up on video as well yeah robot you know they unveiled this uh kind of a year and a half ago I think was the first viewing of it and they're just making pretty rapid progress rapid progress is a massive understatement anyone watching have children think about their rate of progress and learning and skill acquisition in the real world by doing how many with a six-month-old tell their six-month-old to sort blocks by color how about one year how about 1 and a half how about two 2 and 1/ half three right you get the point we're seeing in real time the rate of Optimus from a newborn clunky prototype that couldn't even stand on its own less than 2 years ago when first unveiled to today its capabilities are increasing give or take roughly as quickly as a human being now admittedly it's not going to be perfect there'll be some skills that Acquire a lot quicker than others but the progress we've seen from what many basement dwellers called a stock pump a non- serious product is stunning and the most consequential update of all was learning that tesra is recently retrained optimists purely on end to- End video just like they did with FS V12 demo which took maybe 8 n months from zero to almost as capable as existing FSD beer and in some cases much better and smoother exact same thing as happened with Optimus bot it's now only a matter of time and as we see continued progress from the Optimus human robot it's worth mentally comparing its progress its rate of skill acquisition its capabilities its dexterity its finesse with a human being takes most humans give will take about 18 years to become fully formed physically Optimus has a huge Head Start there more importantly though mentally not until around 25 and then from there we continue to learn and improve at a very slow rate although some of us stopped learning and improving well before then it's separating out blocks they mess with it it can still uh move the blocks in the correct place it some yoga uh and they're saying it's totally endtoend visual learning which is pretty remarkable in and of itself once again that awkward moment when I need to point out that describing this as pretty remarkable is a massive understatement I think it's going to take a few years before people look back and realize the implications of what we've seen this breakthrough training real world AI end to end purely video no ristics it's a watershed moment for the progress of AI in case you guys forgot give will take what 18 months ago large language models had a massive breakthrough and went vertical in terms of the capabilities almost overnight we' seen similar things happen with the likes of Dary mid Journey with image generation art and so on end to end video that's the foundation the building block of the same breakthrough with real world AI capabilities are about to go full hockey stick in my opinion we'll get to the robotic side of it I think later to me the most interesting side of this ties into what you were talking about Andrew and what it means for the labor market or even how do you size this opportunity and I was trying to think of you know the right framework for it because most things it's pretty clear how to say what the addressable Market is so for example electric vehicles you know how many people there are you know how many other you know Petrol gas vehicles are sold so you kind of have a good estimate of what that market size can be then you look at autonomous robots and okay this is a little bit more complic or autonomous vehicles and it's a little bit more complicated to size right you look at vehicle miles traveled Tasha keen's done great work in saying well actually if you lower the price you induce demand and so you're going to get more Vehicles mile vehicle miles traveled right so it's a little bit more complicated but then you look at something like an autonomous humanoid robot and it's unclear to me what the actual total addressable Market is if it can continue to gain humanlike skills right like what is the addressable market for humans some very important points have been raised here we've discussed them before but they be repeating unlike just about every other product one can conceive of whose total addressable Market is a subset of people on Earth then how many either desire and or can afford and or could make use of and so on the product there's a finite upper limit based on the population of Earth and then of those people who actually have the means and the desire to buy said product when trying to ascertain the potential Market size of a useful humanoid robot that can contribute labor globally it's close to impossible to have any idea how big is this opportunity is there an upper limit now obviously once we start buting up against the laws of physics the amount of energy and matter available in our local system sure there is a technical limit but until we're talking Dyson spheres bro one way to think about this and it's a very poor way but hey at least it's a starting point could we imagine there would be use for one humanoid robot per one human being on Earth today I would say Obviously just imagine if you had a robotic helper an assistant whatever companion just imagine a 1:1 ratio of humans to humanoid robots makes a lot of sense what about 2:1 3:1 4:1 10:1 that's one way to think about it but another way is there an upper limit to the amount of useful labor on earth and the answer to this question remains unknown once again I just want to remind you folks on screen right now we're currently looking at inflation adjusted world GDP over the last 2th Millennia currently in excess of 100 trillion but it's worth noting that it almost looks as if out of nowhere practically yesterday somebody pressed to go to the Moon button and World JDP said okay to the Moon I go so what exactly happened well the truth is this is a consequence of two major factors one population growth the number of people on Earth has been increasing substantially over the last 2,000 years but in addition technological innovation standing on the shoulders of giants I'm not going to give you guys and girls a full history lesson but I highly recommend if you guys are curious do some homework and learn about technological innovations that have driven Humanity forward since 1820 world GDP has increased roughly 100 times and since the 1950s about 10x anyone want to remind me when computers started to yeah let's not go there so the equation here is quite simple population times technological capabilities equals world GDP to the Moon a Tesla humanoid robot is a combination of those very two factors technology itself remember the software will keep getting more capable over time and labor as in humans as in useful labor contributing to Global GDP my best guess is if we extended this out another 2,000 years into the future we basically have a straight line going vertical world GDP eventually hitting one quadrillion another 10x from where we are today which is nothing we've already seen 100x in the last give take about 200 years so one quadrillion will blow through that then 10 quadrillion then 100 quadrillion no end in sight I've yet to hear a compelling argument from anyone except those manifesting obvious brain damage as to why there's an arbitrary limit to this rate of GDP growth we have evidence now over thousands of years showing that as humans can provide useful labor and as technology can amplify our output our productivity our efficiency assisting Us in doing more with less we find ways to use that new ability productivity and labor to generate a more prosperous and abundant world are humanoid robots going to do for world GDP what the development of computers and Communications technology did in the last 70 years good question Steven I know yeah Sam I have a interest I I saw an interesting tweet on how to maybe think about how the market develops assuming you don't just get to AGI right off the bat um but someone and I wish I could give them credit but I don't remember who tweeted this out so this is not my own thoughts but I thought it was you know really interesting way to look at how you can scale up or develop these humanoid robots and if you think about you know you're purchasing this robot it ends up in your home it can't come pre-installed with every skill you maybe want it to have unless you do get to AGI I assume but if that is the case and you're not at AGI you then have a skill Market or you know an app store for skills so you download and pay for skills and then you have a whole developer ecosystem training these humanoid robots in warehouses to do specific skills that maybe you know a consumer would want so I think the Tweet the example was you know it's not going to come uh knowing how to create sushi for you but if you want a sushi SEF um at home maybe you download that skill and you pay a developer you know x amount of dollars for it I thought that was an interesting way to think about how you could potentially size the market and think of it as maybe it's an app store type of economy that develops on top of a humanoid robot and it's a direct monetization method on that you know on those apps or skills um which I thought M I don't know if it gets to answering your question of how exactly you would size this Market but I think it is an interesting way to think about how it could develop interesting concept who knows although not going to be useful in sizing the market again all of these skills we heard becoming a sushi chef and so on these are just subsets of useful labor and as Tesla's humanoid robots becomes increasingly more capable generalized broadly useful every task a human being can do in the future a humanid robot an intelligent humanoid robot will also be capable of doing and then eventually doing better and faster and then significantly better and significantly faster and then lots of things that we can't even do as humans super intelligent humanoid robots will also be able to do prior to AGI certainly there's going to be some things that the humanoid robot the Tesla humanoid robot is going to be super capable of doing and others very poor as I mentioned in the past but it's only a matter of time till one by one everything a human does says this Optimist spot can do better and how do you size the opportunity knowing that Optimist will be able to do things that today humans can't we can't even conceive of some of the things Optimist will be capable of doing in the future is about to get real wild and I do think it's much easier to size the market in the near and medium term because you know what I'm talking about is more I guess AGI side of things right because if it even it can just do a simp Le task in a factory then that's great it's probably pretty easy to show Roi particularly if labor costs keep going up uh just having a reliable robot uh that can achieve a task is 247 without calling out sick is high value in and of itself let's not forget a humanoid robot at least hopefully isn't going to go on strike and demand gets paid more than it's already obscene compensation wait wonder why I would mention that hm that has nothing at all to do by the way with the current UAW strikes and the people who are currently around who unfortunately are going to find out by the way quick shout out to a recent video I posted the model y quick assembly click bam done you remember that video incredible insights into how easy it is to put together today's model Y at least the China made model y many of the comments on that video reflected my own think about how easy it would be for a humanoid robot to do this exact task some of the first use cases for Tesla humanid robot will be in their own or Automotive factories putting together vehicles and when Tesla can internally demonstrate how useful and cost efficient humanoid robots are in putting together vehicles in their own factories bet your Bottom Dollar other companies putting together vehicles are going to be banging on Tesla's door begging to get their own Optimist spots to help in their factories but please don't tell that to the UAW workers currently striking cuz the sixf figure compensation isn't enough um but yeah we don't need to go too much in here I did want to throw this in as a topic because it as Andrew thank you for sparking that um any any other thoughts here well I guess I would just say like with what money are people buying the apps or the robots if like all these jobs are are right as in like are the owners of the robot hardware and the AI software like are they essentially the new governments we you arguing are you arguing that people aren't going to have jobs because of a aut I don't know have you not read Sam's work Andrew I I think that is a a a highly unlikely outcome uh given human Ingenuity and uh the history of the labor markets I think if you're going to make that claim there's a lot of arguing and evidence where I think the burden of proof is on that there won't be new jobs for humans over the short term where there's a relatively High degree of certainty that the capabilities of humanoid robots won't surpass humans instantly obviously there'll be jobs for humans but it's obvious and inevitable over the long term as AGI develops and a humanoid robot becomes better than a human at literally every single task any human on earth has ever done and ever will do it's not so obvious that there will still be any jobs left for humans at all unless out of pity well I guess we could let you contribute even though you're really and slow and dumb and do a poor job versus a humanoid robot but hey if you need a job sure why not now I'm not predicting exactly when this happens but it's inevitable at some point the brain and the body of a humanoid robot will exceed human capabilities on every task then exactly what will humans do in terms of useful labor that couldn't be done better and faster and cheaper by a super intelligent humanoid robot I'm open to ideas okay I I just would like to better understand what those jobs will be right it's just I like even for like video game Market sizing with Nick like I'm just trying to understand like if video game producers are 2x more productive are they going to create two games as opposed to like one game per year let's say are they going to create a game that's double um the quality that's also double the price or double the quality and actually the same price right and then that deflation just doesn't show up right and like you know who is playing the game you know like all these different uh variables and I think it's just very hard to understand when we've like have we seen something that's as clearly a productivity booster as AI like before yeah I think in this short time of a frame right oh go ahead Nick you go yeah it's just interesting to think about how as you create extremely cheap Supply in when we're talking about do chat gbt even these humanoid robots as that you know cost decline just continues to crater on in areas of the economy that have largely not seen this type of cost decline that you know we're probably going to be forecasting out where do you unlock that demand to Andrew's point if you are able to create a thousand images a day because of DOI where how do you unlock demand for that you know new Supply that hits the market or does everything just become so cheap and abundant that you know the the market can't really support that type of Supply that's I think a a a really interesting question because you are getting into areas when you're talking about AI where it's just Mass abundance on a scale we've really never seen in areas of the economy that have largely been uh you know locked because it's you know powered by humans and humans are limited uh in what they can produce a day this is absolutely spot on humanity is currently on the cusp of entering an era of abundance then Super abundance and then hyper abundance where the cost of energy Falls to essentially zero the cost of information is already essentially zero so do communication and importantly the cost of useful label will fall close to zero as well just Ponder the implications when energy information communication labor are all essentially zero cost and all of these things are scaling exponentially one thing's for sure it ain't going to be boring well maybe I'll wrap this up um is I think a history of automation is you take economic activity that's not captured by traditional metrics I would say or it's really not it's it's labor that's not captured by the economy and you bring it into the quote real paid economy so you can think about driving millions of people are driving every day half an hour to an hour and they're going to work and no one's paying them that's really not part of the economy that's a lot of dead hours and you say Okay autonomous driving comes in why are people going to switch from driving themselves to autonomous because it's actually going to be less expensive for them to pay a service to do this so then all of a sudden you have hundreds of millions of hours that were not captured in any way in the economy I mean some way right you're paying for fuel gas whatever but now all of a sudden it's becoming part of the economy and it's being captured by the autonomous vehicles this is a good point now a lot of people you might notice intuitively they laugh at the idea that autonomy could unlock a decar trillion dollar opportunity but that it will of course a Deca trillion dollar opportunity is going to look like a rounding area when compared to the impact of useful humanoid robots expanding and contributing to the global labor market and I do mean that by the way 10 124 trillion opportunity is going to look like a rounding error compared to the impact of an army of useful humanoid robots refer earlier to world GDP over time currently around 10 trillion on its way to 1 quadrillion per year then 10 quadrillion then 100 quadrillion then a quintilian yes I did just say that quillion dollars per year if you live long enough I look forward to reminding you guys that I called it decades early and don't forget I've 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