hi it's Lee and welcome to the test Economist all right I thought I'd just do a quick earnings estimate for Q3 I don't think this will be too unexpected or too many surprises obviously we only have 435,000 deliveries which is 30,000 fewer than Q2 due to the downtime we experienced with some of the factory upgrades I'm going to estimate an asp of just over 44,000 slightly lower than the previous quarter and to be honest I don't think it would be quite this slow and I am perhaps overcompensating slight due to the fact I think cogs would be slightly higher due to the factory upgrades so there may be some slight variance between my estimate and the actual result of cogs and ASP but I think the actual gross profits themselves should be fairly close this is a 17.3% gross margin without regulatory credits however I think regulatory credits should be higher this quarter and I'm guessing around 400 million leaving a gross profit of 3.6 7 billion and a 19% margin including credits I'm hoping that Tesla have managed to increase energy slightly from last quarter as last quarter was actually down from q1 so hopefully this quarter has seen an increase and services and other will likely continue to compound like it always does resulting in a total gross profit of $4.2 billion as for Opex I'm giving a more average R&D cost when compared to the previous quarter which was on the high side however there's a chance this could be higher than last quarter two of course and sgna likely compounding two and will be higher than the previous quarter resulting in nearly $2.2 billion in operating income as for interest and other Tesla did have a large of $328 million in the other last quarter which I'm not sure we can expect again this quarter so I think this figure will also be slightly lower giving us an after tax net income of $2.2 billion which then gives us a 77 cents n Gap EPS the consensus is at 73 cents so this would be estimates last quarter my estimates are within less than 1% I think because I really try and take on a very objective approach now without any hope of what might happen I'm expecting Q4 to be much more exciting what with the new Highland sales starting and hopefully all factories full steam ahead this lower EPS was already priced in as early as the Q2 earnings call when the factory shutdowns were officially announced let's hope this earnings call will have some more positive news and get a good direction of where Tesla is headed next year namely what is up with Mexico and gen 3 production cyber truck and 4680 potential yes FSD version 12 but I just find it hard to quantify especially when Elon keeps saying it will be solved this year it makes it hard to judge thanks for listening please hit the Thumbs Up And subscribe you can follow me on Twitter and talk to me on patreon
