hey guys what's up and welcome to a new Tesla update video so today as per usual let's go over the market let's go over Tesla and let's figure out what is happening what we can expect moving forward so as usual if you enjoy don't forget to hit that like button this is not Financial advice I'm not a financial adviser and of course my membership section on YouTube is live the link is below check it out if you're interested $3 a month where essentially I share my intraday thoughts on Tesla today I didn't share too much because it's Thanksgiving in Canada and of course with the war happening it felt a little weird so I kind of wanted to give it like a peace day if that makes sense you know a moment of silence just for all the casualties but nonetheless let's talk about it Tesla pretty much you know slightly in the red not too bad considering it was down about 3 to 3 and a half% at the lowest point in the day closing almost in the green down only half a percent which isn't too shabby but unfortunately compared to the market it is slightly underperforming with the market up about half a percent instead so let's talk about this right what does this all mean so first and foremost obviously the market started off pretty red in the morning right fairly red um and obviously overall reverse the green obviously because of the unfortunate situation that that is happening in the Middle East right now between Israel and palestin people right so obviously a horrible situation right uh especially with the civilians that obviously you know are innocent of course but we're not going to get into politics and we're not going to get too deep into that but that is essentially the reason as to why of course the market did have a bit of a red and similar to when Russia invaded Ukraine it also completely reversed the losses this seems to be a regular occurrence with the market my cat is running around like a maniac that's that noise by the way but nonetheless right so the market in t overall reversed pretty substantially right and Tesla unfortunately still slightly in the red but what does this all mean so in my opinion there's two most the two most important things to look at here are going to be as follows uh and it's all in the 65-minute chart there's two extremely important things which is going to be essentially these two posts I made right here first and foremost we have this post right here which is the bearish post right so this is the bearish take obviously we still have that head and shoulders pattern that's still very much you know visible or it's still very much here that's not something you want to ignore that's obviously still there but on top of that two more important things to pay attention to to again the bearish aspect here is the fact that you know as we're essentially trading within this little range right here for the past you know three or so days or something like that now ever since we we keep coming up to the exact same level pretty much right which is about 260 to 262 something along the lines of that right these candles all here they keep coming up to about the same level and getting rejected at all pretty much the same level right about that 261 262 is range but unfortunately every every time we come up to pretty much the exact same level the RSI meaningfully making lower highs you can make an argument that technically the stock is also right technically it's making lower highs as well ever so slightly because you know you have to look at where the candles are specifically closing and their closures are technically all lower highs as well but nowhere near as obvious as what RSI is showing the RSI to me is showing you know some signs of a bearish Divergence here it's a pretty obvious one so that's number one if this plays out there's going to be obviously one more drop and I do believe if there is one more drop which there is a very real possibility like 40% chance in my opinion then that will hopefully in this case be the final drop until we get in my opinion what I think will come as the uh end of year rally like the Santa rally if you will so I personally think that is on its way and if we get one more drop it should be in theory the last like quote unquote major drop now that's the bearish aspect right essentially a bearish Divergence and of course we still have this um uh bearish Head and Shoulders pattern which again it's not officially broken until we break in my opinion above 263 right that's that now the second to look at is going to be this post I made right here where if I open it up you can see we have a rising triangle right a rising triangle pattern as you can see we have an uptrend right which is what we had here we had an uptrend and then of course we get into this kind of situation where you're constantly getting rejected at the same high roughly doesn't have to be obviously like literally to the decimal the same but pretty much the same high right give or take a dollar but you're constantly getting rejected at the same high but you're constantly making a higher low and that's kind of what's happening right here if we zoom in to this little situation right here we can even go on a smaller time frame to make it a little more obvious but you know that's kind of what's happening over here right we're constantly getting rejected at the pretty much roughly the same high right not necessarily looking at where the candles are closing but where they're overall finding rejection which is pretty much all around 262 right give or take so but as we're doing that we're constantly making a higher low so far at least is what it seems like so take that for what it's worth as well right it's looking like that could be the pattern playing out so in other words the way I'm looking at it right now and what I am personally paying attention to very closely is to see which like which level breaks first the bearish or the bullish level for the bullish level to break and for the Bulls to continue their you know rally forward which it's looking pretty good mainly because on The Daily you can see three of the last four trading days right we had massive Falls to start the day off especially this day here but this day uh uh yesterday I mean I guess more specifically Friday and of course today right all of them started with a fairly red start to the day and all of them either recovered the majority of their losses or recovered all the losses and then some AKA turned actually green on the day red don't forget a green candle doesn't mean it was green on the day it just means it's higher than where it closed higher than where it opened some people get that mixed up now the point is that that happened essentially three of the last four trading days which is pretty darn pretty darn good right and it's unfortunately a little bit low volume today so it's you know a little bit questionable but nonetheless it's looking pretty good so take that for what it's worth that's number one number two right uh that's good to see that's overall just good to see but if we break above 263 then I think this pattern plays out we break above and especially if we start closing candles above 262 263 right we start closing candles where we obviously could not have before right we constantly got rejected over and over and over and over right so that's number one and on top of that like I said we enter the territory of the head which in my opinion if you ever if the shoulder in this case the right shoulder ever enters the territory and especially starts closing candles within the range that the head traded which again is between about 280 to about uh 263 essentially right that to me tells me that the p pattern of the head or the pattern of The Head and Shoulders pattern is now officially void it's extremely the likelihood of it actually being still a valid pattern and playing out substantially decreases in my view at least in my eyes that's how I look at it that's just my perspective right but that's how I look at it so take that for what it's worth as well now on the flip side the bearish side right if we uh essentially break below this blue line over here which is kind of the ascending a kind of you know Channel or wedge or whatever you want to call it is this ascending line right if we break below it and start closing meaningful candles below it as well which in this case will essentially be below 255 I guess to be safe that's where things can start getting a little bit more concerning for the Bulls and the Bears can start getting a little bit of their hopes up right because this pattern could potentially start falling apart right this one right here and on top of that the head and shoulders pattern is looking ever more I guess likely of also playing out so take that for what it's worth that's kind of the main thing I'll be personally paying attention to now with that being set on The Daily we still have the ton an EMA 50-day moving average bouncing off both of those once again today which is great to see right so that's always a nice little you know bonus for the Bulls options flow taking a quick look at it as well it's looking overall pretty darn bullish There is almost no bearishness whatsoever to end the day off right ever so slightly some bearishness here but very minimal especially compared to the bullishness with that being said actually never mind I take that back entirely this is pretty bullish right so we have 2 million in premium excuse me premium here 270 calls expiring October uh 13th which is literally this Friday right and then of course I think this is the one that came in on Friday that we talked about I I told my members about that I think it was uh if I go back here I think it was uh this post right here yeah looks like a whale stepped in at the very end of the day with a massive call I think I talked about it in the video as well but nonetheless right massive premium here 2 million right which is good and be another 1.6 million in premium here 170 calls very much in the money but expiring uh January 20125 the 17th of January uh 2025 so definitely more bullish than bearish but not a whole lot of option activity in general today which is surprising um but if you have to pick a direction it definitely looks more bullish than bearish as of right now so that's kind of what I'm looking at right now again I'm trying to also not always over complicate things there's obviously other indicators we can look at but none of them are giving us too much information The Squeeze is not giving us too much information right now we have the order blocks of course which we are approaching a sell order block sitting in the 270s which is another very important level to break right so that's going to be important to kind of you know pay attention to the pivot point is usually on the weekly time frame but that's not going to be showing us anything just yet and of course we have the volume profile which we are trading within that volume range and so far now we're turning this larger volume area over here around 255 into a support after we broke through it on this massive candle every time we came back into it we are bouncing off of it very nicely which is also good to see so all in all in my opinion I think the Bulls have the upper hand here it's like a 60% chance the Bulls have the upper hand 40% chance the Bears do so I think it is slightly both favored but I wouldn't say it's super convincing just yet again I'll be looking for a break uh out either to the North side or to the south side of this pattern and see how that goes and that's going to be the main thing I'll be looking at before I can really confidently say a Direction has been picked you know what I mean so yeah all that being said thank you so much for watching if you enjoyed don't forget to hit that like button and as usual I'll see you uh all you tomorrow so yeah thanks for watching peace
