Morgan Stanley have come out swinging in defense of Robo taxis price Target on Tesla stock $400 per share after the massive recent bump of course nothing fundamental had changed about Tesla but the penny is starting to drop over at Morgan Stanley funnily enough despite being a few years late to the party and really discussing the potential of robot taxes Morgan Stanley are leaders among their Wall Street peers stay tuned as over the next 12 to 18 months firm after firm after firm start publishing their own research their own notes and maybe even increasing their own price Targets on Tesla specifically relating to the autonomous opportunity and once again for the record my estimate for the first T of Robo taxi remains unchanged occurring late 2024 it's been in my Tes valuation model since I first published it back in 2021 Link in description if you want access to that it's available on patreon to supporters at the investor level and above and that's the thing that produces my apparently absurd Tesla price targets AKA Fair valuation for Tesla autonomy is carrying that so the adoption curve of autonomous cars robot taxis will depend on a range of technological legal and Regulatory and even moral and ethical factors but facts and events do change and so too must and endless views isn't that interesting could this possibly have anything to do with the massive FSD V12 rewrite trained on nend to end video spoiler alert yes of course they haven't disclosed that explicitly but uh that's probably what happened I kind of pointed out the insane breakthrough moment no more major obstacles in the way just a matter of time now and I think Morgan Stanley subtly agree quote autonomous cars are no longer just the realm of Science Fiction they are real and will be on roads sooner than you think these were the two opening sentences of our autonomous cars blue paper written in nearly 10 years ago with my research partner in that report we had predicted that the first autonomous cars would be on the road in commercial operation at limited scale before the end of the decade not a bad prediction by the way limited scale by the end of the decade they made the prediction early 2010s they weren't far off in years subsequent to our initial autonomous vehicle Report it became clearer to the stock market that the journey to autonomous cars would be more complicated a delayed and nonlinear adoption rate however we remind investors that autonomous cars are a reality I personally have taken rides in vehicles on public roads in crowded cities with no driver behind the wheel I have clients who say they use cruise and whmo vehicles for commuting around San franisco on a regular basis are driverless cars ubiquitous far from it we estimate the combined population of cars in operation in the US without drivers in the seat wayo Cru Etc not including Tesla account for 0.4% of all cars on the road by the way guys just jumping in here to provide a little bit of context just for reference my current ownership stake of Tesla is 0.69% of the company literally nothing so number of autonomous vehicles right now approximately all expressed another way there are approximately a quar of a million human driving cars for every one driverless car on the road in the US but let's go back to what's changing specifically the underlying technology is constantly improving Ai and compute and early commercial efforts are allowing the regulatory environment an opportunity to evolve and curate and this is true and an important Point as I've mentioned in the past companies like Cruz and whmo are actually Paving the regulatory path for Tesla believe it or not you hear a lot of derps claiming Tesla's driver assistance feature is only this level or that level all these other companies are so far ahead Tesla's just kicking back not over promising training improving the capabilities and at some point they're going to have so much data and the regulatory path will already have been paav they go hey guys uh here's the data showing our vehicles are much safer when they're not being operated by humans it would be unconscionable for you not to approve Us in XYZ location based on the data here's the mountain of data proving that our vehicles are safer when autonomous thank you approval now thanks go and truth be told despite all the we hear in the fake news about Tesla and this that and the other there is a huge amount of flack and negative press around companies like Cruz and wh understandably so San Francisco a wh vehicle doesn't know what the to do blocks the road blocks traffic absolute train wrecks they make for very viral videos but funnily enough this is one of the few instances where Tesla isn't taking all the Heat and coping all the arrows following the publication of our work on Tesla's Ai and supercomputing efforts and Dojo primer which was the Catalyst for their $400 price Target massive increase I think it was 250 before then we have had a more ample and recent opportunity to gauge investor sentiment on the autonomous car theme most of which excuse skeptical just jumping in here again I think skeptical investors are greatly going to regret that again we're in October now in 2023 and I personally believe before the end of next year the first tar robotex is awaken now look I might be off in fact I'll definitely be off the question is how far off the Mark will I be be because I think the average investor is expecting I don't know the end of the decade give or take that's quite a discrepancy and uh remember when the Robo taxis awaken the financial implications for Tesla holy autonomous cars seem to grab more headlines these days for when things go wrong of course you're not likely to read a news article about a safe and uneventful commute in a robot taxi or under the command of the latest version of Tesla FSD I got to give a round of applause here to Morgan Stanley because this is true the fact I've acknowledged this good on them unless you live in this little vacuum the Tesla bubble and you see these end to-end drives videos being posted by people using FSD beta where they do not touch the wheel do not intervene at all for an entire Drive especially in portions of San Francisco unless you see these videos for yourself you have no idea what's happening and no context all you hear is some expert claiming that Mercedes has more advanced FSD driving technology than Tesla because some expert on the Internet or Finance media told me therefore well Tesla's losing I'll tell you what the number of intervention free drives on Tesla FSD beta is increasing exponentially and that's not to say it's perfect that's why it's still called bet up but it's getting there fast but we've been here before on September 13th 1899 Henry hail Bliss was hit by an automobile while getting off a New York street car on the corner of Central Park West in 74 Street becoming the first reported automobile related pedestrian fatality in the United States it was front page news of the New York Times according to the article it was an electric car that hit Mr Bliss 123 years later which would be last year there were 42794 traffic related fatalities in the United States I mean this is absolutely shocking credit to the Morgan Stanley sleth for digging this one up too if you guys are curious feel free I'm going to zoom right out so you can take this whole thing in I've paused the video here I'll just read the headline and subline here fatally hurt by automobile a vehicle carrying the son of EX mayor Edison ran over HH Bliss who was a lighting from a trolley car so again if you want to read the full thing just pause the video isn't it hilarious that literally 123 years ago the media was doing the same thing if it bleeds at leads same tactics more than a century ago so why do we extend this Olive Branch to the robot powered car as we continue to engage with AI experts within the Morgan Stanley research department now this is nice to hear by the way because remember that's the just a car company I mean wait no they're not just a car company which is why they're talking to AI experts within Morgan Stanley now again think about this what a few months ago Morgan Stanley laughably low Tesla price Target next minute Tesla FSD V12 entn demo train p on video Adam Jones the team go to the AI experts um is this a thing should we do is this hello help what does this mean AI expert go oh Fu that's actually a massive breakthrough holy really they train that end to end on video no htics what really dude I think that's approximately what's been going on behind the scenes in Morgan Stanley expect more of this in the future so as we continue to engage with AI experts within the Morgan Stanley research department and amongst our client and corporate Network we can't help but feel a gradual demystification of what an autonomous car has to do and what technologies are required to add more nines to the right of the decimal place as we move the comparison of safety levels from Human driver benchmarking to something approaching commercial aircraft safety levels admittedly I was pretty surprised when Morgan stand 's North American semi chip analyst Joe Moore by the way what a great surname if you know you know explained to me that training a vision-based neuronet for autonomous driving may be quote a billion times less complex than training a large language model that is a strong statement to be clear he's not explaining that it's a billion times easier just less complicated we'll get to that in just a moment and yes there are important differences with respect to measuring safety between an accident on the road and an incorrect word choice on a college entrance exam by the way let me know in the comments below who's been using the large language models EG chat jpt and if you've noticed any of the mistakes that are made some strange hallucinations spoken with the utmost confidence and it's hilarious by the way if you're correct chat jpt is like uh bro are you sure that's right because you said this but that's this and it goes oh thank you sorry I made a mistake thank you for pointing out I'm so sorry here's the actual correct answer just like nothing happened it's pretty hilarious kind of like a human just pretending oh yeah sorry uh yeah good point I up sorry but when another industry expert explained to me what skills it really takes to be a super safe driver it started to click ah yes it started to click these four words are going to summarize a lot of what happens from Wall Street and their coverage on Tesla in the next 12 18 months there are essentially three basic things that are generally accepted as required in some quantity to be a safe driver One Vision can a computer with 7 HD cameras see better than a human now this is absolutely true and remember I've been talking about Tesla vision and the foundational building block and all this and yeah yeah yeah okay this is the most important thing solving Vision that is seeing perceiving knowing what you're seeing planning and then acting based on that this is perception this is Vision in a nutshell and it's critically important and as I've said Tes is on the cusp and there is no other company on the planet even attempting to solve this problem HD mapping lighter does not count it's a glorified party trick number two attention span can a computer pay attention better than human spoiler alert obviously by the way when was the last time you saw a computer drive past a 10 and go holy and crash their car or exactly it doesn't happen can the same be said of about 50% of the world's population no and three reaction time I hand and motor skills can a computer act faster than a human du if the answer to any of the above three questions individually is yes then what is a limiting factor for why the combination of all three cannot be a robot driver that is Thousands or even millions of times safer than a human driver again Morgan Stanley are finally getting it what were those four words it started to click hello yes exactly this is first principles in a nutshell notice by the way Vision HD cameras basically Four Eyes isn't it interesting that Morgan stany didn't say can a computer with a bunch of unnecessary sensors like liar and radar and cameras see better than a human no they're getting it one more time it started to click now consider that the robo taxi needs to perform three key physical outputs assuming a vehicle limited to today's human car controls one steering wheel angle and force two acceler R angle and force and three breake angle and force quite basic the full story of the robot taxi will be told over decades this is true by the way and I love love love hearing the word decades it's plural decades when referring to Tesla a reminder my valuation model at least the public facing version runs out for a decade but privately a model well beyond that it's just the level of uncertainty makes it absolutely pointless to publish anything beyond about the end of this decade or so autonomous car experts will point to far more advantages a robotaxi may have versus a human driver that can improve over time including Predictive Analytics fancy word for saying planning and predicting oh what's that going to do it's going to go there might go there what are the probabilities that'll do this or that blah blah blah same we do but computers can and will do it much better vehicle to vehicle communication which I think might be a way off but probably inevitable at some point again over decades and rout planning autonomous safety experts will point out the lack of moral equivalency between a traffic fatality caus a human versus a robot in many ways today's Robo taxis need to be quote the toughest and the bravest they must navigate city streets congested by human drivers following human rules with infrastructure designed for humans now this actually is a great Point Credit words du like this is a great Insight again over the coming decades Road systems will become much friendlier for autonomous vehicles even just by the fact if we know everything else the fact that there will be more autonomous vehicles on roads with faster reaction times and safer driving behaviors will mean the road s in general are safer for all participants including other Robo taxis solid point the robo taxi progeny what a great word by the way progeny of 2033 or 2043 will likely enjoy many advantages compared to the autonomous car pioneers of 2023 this is where the bleeding edge of AI and machine learning comes into play could the prospect of advanced custom AI supercomputing did someone say Dojo combined with a neural network trained by a Monumental data set did someone say Tesla's unable data lead where the learnings of one vehicle can improve the performance of all Vehicles operating in a fleet at the same time did somebody say Tesla's FSD software be the missing ingredient for the robo taxi era spoiler alert yes oh wait but hang on a minute it's not missing cuz tesar already has all those ingredients H isn't that interesting time will tell but we think there's a shot make sure you're sitting down for this and we think tesar is well positioned within our coverage in this regard this is the understatement of all understatements from Morgan Stanley but the meaning is is quite clear let's recap this stuff cuz it's important Advanced Custom Custom not buy off the shelf no design your own custom AI supercomputing Dojo combined with neural network Train by Monumental data set again Tesla a fleet of what 5 million vehicles on roads and growing a couple of million vehicles per year no one's close no one's catching up this is literally an unable data lead and obviously they have the data flywheel they're not training Vehicles individually they're training the software itself which over theair updates applied to all Vehicles operating in the fleet at the same time Tesla literally has the ingredients no one else does and as I've said in the past in order for others to get certain ingredients it's basically not possible be financially suicidal to even attempt how do you put 5 million vehicles on roads cover in census today how you can build them yourself and good luck with that you'll probably go bankrupt or you can partner with a company that's already building them and pay thousands of dollars per vehicle produced to put the sensors on the vehicles but who's going to front up those billions and billions and billions of dollars and then you can't just match Tesla's Fleet size because you need to catch up to their existing Fleet data meaning you're going to have to have millions and millions and millions and millions more vehicles on roads than Tesla and by later this decade Tesla's going to be at around 10 million vehicles per year which will be biger than any other automotive manufacturer on the planet who will have peaked around 11 million vehicles per year but will see their sales plummet into this decade beside Tesla I think the biggest Automotive manufacturers will be lucky to do maybe four 5 million vehicles per year on their way to zero not 0 million isn't just zero vehicles per year AKA bankrupt so one more time it started to click so to the robo taxi Community we say this we understand that technological progress will not be in a straight line and the regulatory progress may even be more unpredictable but we thank you in advance for making our road safer again I love this because autonomy will make our road safer despite what you hear in the fake news and from morons like Dan O dud Monty Burns what's his name you know that old guy is destroying his reputation out of fear for his own companies his future viability I mean uh because he just generally cares about safety actually yeah anyway I going to give credit here as I said the penny is finally starting to drop at least among one mob on Wall Street that would be Morgan Stanley who have the advantage of having AI analysts and experts within their ranks suff as to say Morgan Stanley and Adam Jonas do not believe tesar is just a car company they do however believe that they have all of the necessary ingredients to solve autonomy which is true what they don't point out at least not explicitly although it is sort of implicit in this statement Tesla is well positioned if they would have finished this sentence it would really read we think Tesla is well positioned within our coverage in this regard and no other companies are even slightly positioned let alone well positioned within our coverage or even outside of our coverage in other words Tesla has an unable lead they will be first and they will maintain that lead indefinitely rest in peace every company that isn't tesler this is definitely one of my favorite notes from Morgan Stanley just because they are really finally starting to get it as Adam points out it started to click so my prediction is in the next 12 to 18 months it will start to click for many other folks on Wall Street and of course once the first Tesla robot taxi awakens not only will it have clicked but they will have been slapped in the face with the reality that it is now happening a lot faster than they could have predicted again the financial implications of Tesla solving autonomy are staggering I highly encourage everyone to spend the time modeling out the opportunity yourself it is a Monumental task although you can do back of the napkin stuff pretty quickly but if you really want to think about it please take the time it is in your best interest if you're a Tesla stock investor and if you want a starting point again check out patreon my valuation model you can download a view only version of it at the investa level and above that you can even download an editable version if you want save your bit of time start playing around with the numbers and the assumptions and look at the implications in short don't sleep on autonomy you will 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