[Music] what's up YouTube hope you guys are doing well Tesla updated some information yesterday gave us an update on deliveries and production of vehicles now there are two critical things that I want to focus on in this video I'm going to give you an update and some thoughts on where Tesla could be headed next so in the third quarter Tesla produced over 430 000 vehicles and delivered over 435 000 Vehicles I'll give you the exacts here in a second a sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned down times for factory upgrades as discussed on the most recent earnings call this next part is critical and we'll talk more about this later our 2023 volume Target of around 1.8 million Vehicles remains unchanged another thing to point out here is we have earnings in just a couple of weeks so October 18th we're going to get Q3 results so here are the actual numbers for 435 059 for deliveries production 430 488 and of course you can see in the previous quarter deliveries in production the numbers were higher we had 466 140 and 479 700 respectively now if we go to the same period in 2022 we had 365 923 for production deliveries of three hundred forty three thousand eight thirty so looking year over year at Q3 the numbers are significantly higher but they did Miss Wall Street expectations so you can see here this is nearly a seven percent decline in vehicle deliveries yesterday the stock closed up 251.60 it's down slightly today it's back below 250 dollars a share and as we discussed we knew about this from the earnings call so this is a quote here from CEO Elon Musk continue to Target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year which they reiterated yesterday but expected third quarter production to decline slightly following summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrade kids when you think about Factory upgrades what's that going to do it's going to make these factories more efficient more effective so they can produce more Vehicles so perhaps short-term pain for longer term gain it also talks about how Tesla at this point is not reporting on production or delivery numbers for the semi truck we know that Pepsi has some of these actually in operation but that's about it at this point so when you look at Future opportunities of course more semi trucks that's a big opportunity cyber truck and much more now Wall Street was expecting Tesla deliveries to reach 461 640 for this period ending September 30th and this is according to analysts it's a consensus analyst report that's pulled by Street account it also talks about an independent researcher basically somebody on Twitter on social media that were actually a little bit closer expecting 441 000 Vehicles also important to note here that Tesla has revealed a revamped version of model 3 dubbed the Highland with both new exterior and interior features and started selling it in some regions outside of the United States so this has upgrades like touch screen display for rear passenger seats ventilated seats and others this article on TechCrunch is saying that the results here missed Wall Street expectations nearly seven percent lower than previous quarter so of course the positive here Tesla's still targeting that 1.8 million deliveries in 2023. now Tesla has delivered 1.32 million Vehicles so far this year so that leaves a gap of about 480 000 Vehicles left by the end of the year now the second thing and this is absolutely huge and I think it's hard to follow this there's a lot of information there's a lot going on when you look at the UAW strikes so the auto union strikes the requesting a 40 pay increase now of course that's the starting point but if you look at what they've done they've really thrown the playbook out they're being crazy aggressive here and we've we've had some commentary from the CEOs of Ford and GM president of GM saying you know this is basically gonna you know put us out of business and Elon Musk actually tweeted about it as well saying exactly that so let's dig into that a little bit closer and see maybe who the winners and losers might be from this the United Auto Workers Union the nation's largest Auto Union voted to authorize a strike the union expanding the walkout across the country we're talking Nationwide California to Pennsylvania so right now over 25 000 union workers are on strike and that number is increasing of course that's for what we call the big three Ford stalantis and GM now demands include a 40 wage increase over four years better retirement Plans cost of living adjustments and a four day work week now this would raise the total all in cost per employee per hour to a hundred and fifty dollars now that's more than double what the number is today it hurts everybody it hurts our employees it hurts the communities where these plants are there's no way we can be sustainable as a company you want you want us to choose bankruptcy so we when you look at Automotive you look at automakers per cost hours and you can see on your screen here Tesla is the lowest by far at fifty dollars and four and at 55. the big three are in the 60s and they're trying to increase that significantly we saw earlier that all in cost about 150 per hour now there's a lot to unpack there let's first look at the macro and how that would impact the macroeconomics the overall economy so forty percent is a starting point unless they don't get 40 but even if they get 15 or 20 percent what that's going to do is set a precedent for higher labor costs now right now as you know we've had inflation issues so the federal raising interest rates trying to combat that inflation higher wage inflation is going to make inflation overall stickier for longer now let's say that they get no raise and so you don't have the the wage inflation issue but now you have the strike that lingers on it can Linger on for months that's going to impact things like gross domestic product this overall production employees salaries the amount of money being spent in the economy so this is really a lose-lose deal and I'm talking about the economy here so obviously I want what's best for American workers I'm not saying that I don't believe in that but if the UAW wins especially if it's a significant number that's going to put pressure on overall wage inflation set that precedent now who are the beneficiaries from this well first and foremost you can look and say foreign because foreign automakers they're able to make their products cheaper so you heard from Ford and GM from the leaders there saying that this could potentially put our companies at risk of bankruptcy so you have other companies like Toyota and Honda and Kia and so on those are beneficiaries now when you think about the pivot from Ice vehicles to EVS electric vehicles beneficiaries will include first and foremost Tesla it could even include EV makers such as rivian lucid and so on so Tesla's workers as you know there's not a union there and it makes the cost lower and the company has defended that by saying you know we have a great stock option plan in fact Elon Musk tweeted you know that if they go to a union there's nothing stopping Tesla workers going to a union but then they have to pay union dues and you're probably not going to get Tesla stock compensation so the employee Tesla stock Compensation Plan and that has made a lot of people especially if they've been with Tesla for a long time it's made them a lot of money now the problem is that's the pass so you don't know what Tesla stock is necessarily going to do in the future and you might remember this whole Saga when Elon tweeted that basically saying that that was unfair they tried to make him take the Tweet down they defended it and the Tweet is still up so Tesla can already make EVS much more efficiently than the big three they're way ahead in the cycle in terms of just the factory output and so on in the big three they're struggling right now trying to Pivot from Ice to electric vehicles so many would argue that this is going to put more pressure on these companies and many people think that it's just inevitable it's a matter of time before maybe one two or maybe all three of of these go out of business now the other thing I want to point out here we talked earlier about the 1.8 million that's about a 33 increase which is still pretty solid when you think of the macro conditions the overall environment the question is we have student loans that just came back into place so many of you over 40 million Americans now have to pay student loans and this is something we haven't seen before it's been a couple years since people have had to pay for you know student loans and their payments when you think about the overall U.S economy and GDP 68 to 70 percent relies on consumer spending so inflation has increased prices but then also the FED trying to combat inflation increase interest rates so it's more expensive from everything from buying a car to buying a house your mortgage payment your rent and so on so the average American is getting squeezed in many different directions here and what happens when the consumer runs out of discretionary income a disposable income to spend on the economy there needs to be money left over to spend on things like Starbucks bucks and cars and and so on you get the idea so this is why the Bears are in the camp of we're going into a recession and you certainly can paint that picture very easily the unknown is when is the Fed gonna pivot pause those rate hikes and go the other direction actually start decreasing interest rates this could take some time it might be six months before you see it happen and what happens with the economy in that six months in those two different quarters remember all of our economic data is lagging so CPI is lagging we just don't really know and it's going to be data dependent and the Market's going to continue to be volatile now with all that said I'm going to give you my thoughts on Tesla stock before I do that if you're new here subscribe to the channel click that Bell for notifications if this video is helpful drop me a like and drop me a comment and I'm actually adding more tests on weakness I prefer the stock below 200 I liked it a lot when it was less than 150 dollars we were adding that heavily in Discord with all that said I'm looking at buying more Tesla stock adding more Tesla stock because I think longer term that Tesla is going to be a beneficiary 1.8 million Vehicles is still very positive for the company given the macro there certainly could be headwinds the stock could could certainly go lower if we go into recession of course it will but when I think of five and ten years out Tesla already dominates the EV Market in the United States their Chargers are basically the industry standard everybody's using them it seems like every day someone else comes out and says they're going to use Tesla electric vehicle charging as their standard so they're creating this network effect this ecosystem for their customers they're building new products we talked about the semi we talked about the Cyber truck when you look at FSD full self driving in their AI capabilities nobody can even touch them we've talked about on the channel before how Tesla could really be more of a software as a service type company you could make FSD a subscription a software as a service subscription plan for other automakers to actually use their FSD service autonomous driving is the future it's going to take time but it's coming it is coming and you think about Robo taxis of course that's why Arc is so bullish on Robo taxis I'll cover that in detail on the channel here before you've got moonshots like Optimus which I don't even really include in my data when I'm when I'm trying to predict what the stocks will be worth and I've done a video on the channel if you haven't seen it predictions for Tesla stock over the next five and ten years go check that video out after this one but I hope this video is helpful this is an update on Tesla in my thoughts I'm gonna be buying more shares the lower the better I appreciate your time and attention have a great rest of your day take care
