the treasury sell off leaving many investors feeling the pain Jared liques here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with a closer look at what that pain looks like Jared oh Julie it's so painful uh we got we're in a three-year treasury draw down this has only happened twice before in the last 100 years you'd have to go back to the 78 to 80 area era and you would see okay we had a three-year draw down then 32 to 33 somewhere in the midst of the Great Depression and now now uh that's currently what we're facing but I want to go to the Wi-Fi interactive and just kind of chart what's happening today in the 10year uh you're going to note that in the daily and 52e range we have a high of 5.0% so that's the first time we've reached that level since 2007 and if I pull up a chart here this is a year to date you can see here are the 3.25 lows in March that was in the midst of that internet banking panic and then it's been Off to the Races and we've even accelerated uh towards the upside here so a lot of people saying this looks like a parabolic move which has all kinds of implications I think it's a little bit early for that but I want to show you this is a 10-year treasury yield chart from 65 1965 to 2023 and uh Julia you might remember the pink dotts chart from the other day well this is a little variation of it if you take the number of times that the 10-year yield has uh surged more than 10 basis points in one day you do that for each month and you add it up all the way at the right hand side you're going to see well currently we have four of those events this month and uh one of those is to the downside what I want to show and just the general impression from this chart though is to show that this era that we're in right here is really a low uh era of low volatility in treasuries we have seen some much greater volatility especially in the late 7s and the early 80s so all of this to say is there's a lot more volatility that could come if we get uh a surge in interest rates above 5% and that's that big psychological mark uh does that really matter uh well yes because anytime we get a surge in rate with Bond volatility that spills over and it doesn't leave much room for other risk assets want to show you another chart on the Wi-Fi interactive this is a NASDAQ 100 going back to 1999 divided by US Treasury so this goes this is the tech to treasury ratio as high as it was in the dot bubble around five there it is much higher nowadays in the current epic and that is because not only is the NASDAQ 100 surging because of the mega caps that are outperforming but also concurrently we have treasury bonds underperforming and in fact in that three-year uh downdraft uh you put it together with everything Paul said today there's just increase uncertainty uncertainty in the market and Paul himself doesn't think that this latest rise is due to anything emic of our future expectations of interest rates so he might be on pause but he might have to catch up later or maybe he's done too much already we just don't know Julie Jared blicker I'll take it from here thank you Jared all right thank you
