I think Tesla it's a win-win situation because when you look at the big three what's happening here it's a debacle in Detroit because ultimately this is going to be passed to the consumer when eventually they do get a deal and the EV strategy I mean this is a gut punch to borrow Farley what they've built over the years and I think that's really the frustration right now in this Rubik's Cube where I believe the UAW deal if they took that it would essentially impair the business models for the for us in the next decade why is it that Tesla's demand has been so soft is it simply that they've over produced and they can't cut prices enough because there's just no pent-up demand additionally for EVS and there's nothing but why is it that those delivery numbers and that they have so much excess inventory right now how long is it going to take for that to be absorbed if anyone has a cure for secondhand embarrassment damn me Onyx I am in dire need saying BSF absolutely fumbled the football today one of the most embarrassing pieces on Tesla I've ever seen this in reaction to Tesla's Q3 delivery and production numbers huh I will give them credit cnbs are really earning the acronym today sorry the numbers are in in the third quarter Tesla produced over 430 000 vehicles and delivered over 435 000 as they say a sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned downtime for factory upgrades shout out to the refresh model 3 as discussed on the most recent earnings call our 2023 volume Target of around 1.8 million Vehicles remains unchanged this of course is a gigantic non-event and if for any reason you hear any folks claiming that Tesla is a busted Growth story deliveries are collapsing they've got a problem with demand and so on you know you're hearing from a disingenuous clown at best and a very dishonest deceptive manipulative liar at worst if Tesla hadn't told us ahead of time that there would be planned Factory upgrades and there wasn't a refresh model 3 it would be a different story but of course you can't produce Vehicles if you can't produce vehicles and while you're doing upgrades to production lines you can't produce vehicles on those production now let's quickly rewind the clock look at Tesla's Q3 deliveries over the last five years although as I mentioned Tesla does eventually deliver every vehicle they produce so much better to focus on production 430 488 despite shutdowns this quarter a year ago 365 923 that was in 2022 and Q3 2021 237 823 Q3 2020 145 036 and in 2019 a whopping 96 155 Vehicles produced so it's worth pointing out that despite the planned shutdowns and a loss of production on the order of 100 plus thousand Vehicles year over year Tesla still significantly up in terms of vehicles produced and now with that out of the way I just want to warn everybody please make sure you're not consuming any liquids or eating unless of course you're willing to risk either destroying a keyboard laptop and or just choking to death as I almost did as I was recording this the folks at cnbs are about to embarrass themselves like you've never seen before oh and just a quick heads up if you guys haven't seen posted an exclusive q a over on patreon today plus an exclusive video yesterday on blood work and biomarkers and about to drop another video exclusive to my ex-subscribers in the next 24 hours so check the links in the pin comment if you'd like access to that exclusive content let's bring in Dan Ives managing director of equity research with wed Bush security it's great to see you great to be here very very busy times uh I mean it's you don't even know which piece of this to start with and you've been quite clear about how bad you think this strike is going to be for the big three if they get what they're demanding is there any way in which Tesla also comes out a loser here because its workers demand more it tries to unionize them or you know something to that effect sure I mean there's always been a fear of Union to Tesla I just see that as basically minimal probability that's going to ever happen I think Tesla it's a win-win situation because when you look at the big three what's happening here it's a debacle in Detroit because ultimately this is going to be passed to the consumer when eventually they do get a deal and the EV strategy I mean this is a gut punch to borrow Farley what they've built over the years and I think that's really the frustration right now in this Rubik's Cube where I believe the UAW deal if they took that it would essentially impair the business models for the for us in the next decade to be clear even if a fraction of what the UAW are demanding of the Detroit three is agreed to it won't just impaired the businesses it will kill them they were already on the endangered species list before this and now massively increasing costs being forced to overpay people they can't afford in the first place it's just going to accelerate their inevitable bankruptcy The Big Three that is it will impair the business model because it'll be forced to pay so much more to the workforce that they will not be able to invest in the conversion to electric vehicles exactly I mean if I look if they actually sign this deal I mean these these business models the street would basically view it as the Everest like uphill battle to ever be successful because it's only one hand type on their back back they're going against non-union tests on non-union rivian foreign automakers and that's why right now champagne on Ice has been for Tesla in terms of depending competition that's coming out of Detroit and that's why this UAW It's A Nightmare on Elm Street in terms of what's happened Detroit why is it that Tesla's demand has been so soft is it simply that they've over produced and they can't cut prices enough because there's just no pent-up demand additionally for EVS and there's another but why is it that those delivery numbers and that they have so much excess inventory right now how long is it going to take for that to be absorbed the is she talking about now in case you guys don't know most of the folks in the mainstream Finance media don't know anything about anything there are some exceptions but they are exceptions instead they have a producer in their ear telling them things feeding them information supposed information they're just talking heads great example right now apparently Tesla has a lack of demand the cnbs believe they have evidence of a lack of demand and apparently there's a huge buildup of inventory what actually what sorry to do this cnbs but fact check hmm what do we have here individual model numbers Tesla inventory in the United States model 3y s and X now we just heard apparently there's a huge buildup of inventory really cnbs you have literally a few hundred Tesla vehicles in US inventory in total a few hundred historically this number has been in the multiple thousands as in single model alone why over 5000 in inventory model three over two thousand we're talking a few hundred less than 420 model X less than 300 model 3 less than 200 model wise the are they talking about oh that's right they don't know what they're talking about what a surprise I mean Hello what are they talking about a build up you morons never attribute to malice that which can be explained by brain damage so I'm going to assume that the folks on cnbs the producers in particular are just suffering from brain damage oh doesn't quarterly deliveries are less than they were last quarter they didn't explain why that would be so there must be a problem there must be a lack of demand and that must mean there's a build up of inventory you idiots I cannot believe the level of potato I mean seriously absolutely amateur hour over there but don't worry they dress very sharp so you can trust them so we think it's really fourth chord I mean if I look overall take a step back if you look at 1.8 million where I believe is going to be delivered for the year that's a super strong number relative to the environment I think margins trough and Phil's talked about that as well Q4 I think you have cyber truck that stars production a refresher model three and I think in China they actually start to gain more share that's why in our view this is more of what I've used a pause into the next phase of the Tesla growth story which is why we've been telling our investors here you continue to own this name how did they go from not being able a year ago not being able to meet demand to this the situation where they are right now the are they talking about bro this is classic all-time classic I I swear now again it's just speculation but somebody at cnbs here has thrown all of these Talking Heads under the bus they sound like morons oh quarterly delivery numbers are less that's a problem it's not like I explained why they'd be down because there'd be planned shutdowns for upgrades let's spend the entire segment asking about a lack of demand a buildup of inventory what's gone wrong with Tesla I hope Dan actually summons up his testicles and calls him out on this because I don't know what the they're talking about and he seems to be overly polite in his responses you guys remember earlier we looked at Tesla's last five years of Q3 deliveries right and production right remember that the trend up yet constantly quarter after quarter these same kind of comments and discussions have taken place in the finance media including on CNB so there's a lack of demand why is Tesla struggling why is there a build of inventory same story it has it possible that we've just seen Tesla's gone from delivering less than a hundred thousand vehicles in a single quarter five years ago to delivering around 400 000 this quarter despite planned shutdowns is it just me or is 400 000 more than one hundred thousand oh it is yeah okay right so yeah demand definitely soft we've seen that in China in terms of century price whether it's happened in China but I believe the poker move of cutting prices that was the right thing I think we've seen it in the stock in terms of stimuli and demand for Tesla but no doubt they are definitely going through a transition in terms of what we're seeing with demand in the U.S globally but if you look at scale and where that we believe they could get to production we're going to be looking at next year or two or come ask me 2.5 million ultimately in the 3 million what they're going to see from a delivery as well as a production I think this is just power in my opinion this is just what I'll call the middle phases of the next phase of the Tesla growth story taking place I wonder though about competing with byd I mean I there they have more models they have they update them more quickly they have more colors all right guys uh it doesn't happen that often but I just had to cut my instant reaction to I just choked to death laughing I literally just choked the nearly died maybe my eyes are watering a bit they have more models they have more colors oh Tesla look out uh byd have more options for consumers to choose from like how Apple are in big trouble because they only have two variations the iPhone the big and they're not big I think that's the technical term right yeah hmm isn't that interesting should Apple be concerned about some random smartphone manufacturer that has 24 different colors of phone in 12 different sizes probably not yep you may have noticed Tesla makes one category killer per category and he's literally killing every category they do that in this is a winning strategy an additional benefit of doing so is huge economies of scale if you're making 500 000 700 000 1 million two million of the exact same vehicle by the way model y will be over 2 million vehicles per year not long from now you benefit enormously from economies of scale use the same Parts in more Vehicles you can buy them cheap you can make them cheaper Etc byd is making something like 1 8 the profit per vehicle sold that Tesla's making there's a perfect Financial example of why too much variation and complexity is not the move which is oh I just can't believe she said that this is the level of thinking on cnbs byd has more bottles and more colors to choose from doesn't that mean Tesla's in trouble you know it's already Chinese models are like some of the top selling vehicles in Europe already they also have um what's the smaller one the four letters uh anyway there's it's not just byd which is formidable but there's other Chinese automakers as well and you read about these these are not like you know low-cost cheap businesses byd is like it's like the Japan of the 2020s in terms of the impact that Japanese automakers had on the market back then so you do wonder if Tesla even having an advantage to the big three how does it not get undercut how does Tesla not get undercut by companies like bayyd from China selling electric vehicles now look maybe I hallucinated the fact that Tesla's making six seven eight times as much money per vehicle sold as byd but if I didn't hallucinate that fact by the way I didn't how in the flying does a company like byd undercut Tesla they don't have as much wiggle room if byd tries to undercut Tesla on costs what Tesla's making many times more money per vehicle sold byd will go from making a small profit to making no profit to losing a small amount to losing a huge amount selling Vehicles competing against Tesla that even if Tesla copied and chased byd's prices down Tesla would still be making thousands of dollars per vehicle sold at the same time byd was losing thousands of dollars per vehicle sold to compete with Tesla to undercut Tesla this is logic 101 here it stuns me again the folks on cnbs don't know anything about anything they just talk they get told what to say what to believe the way things are again there's some exceptions not many of them this is pretty embarrassing it is Tesla with the ability to undercut all other Automotive manufacturers on Earth because they have the industry leading profit margins the exact same thing they're wondering couldn't by the owner called Tesla is what Tes is doing to the whole industry Jesus and if they keep the Chinese Mark cars out of this Market maybe it'll be fine but how does it not get undercut look this is an arms race I mean this is a Game of Thrones that's going on to see what happens and I've seen it firsthand byd Neo X ping and others I mean some of the best EVS out there I think where Tesla has been so successful because of their ability to expand gig in terms of Shanghai what they've been able to to do from a price perspective and the Chinese consumer especially in the high-end a rise in middle class they do want Teslas but to your point do Chinese EV Vehicles come here into the U.S ultimately that actually becomes the issue I don't want to ruin the end of the movie for you folks so spoiler alert that's exactly what's going to happen there will be an invasion of electric vehicles from China and Korea in the United States and in Europe that's not a problem for Tesla because Tesla still has the best tech the best prices the most scale compelling products they're the company dictating terms of pricing in the electric vehicle industry which is the future of the automotive industry an EV Invasion From China is no big deal do you want to buy a Tesla or a Chinese Tesla exactly the problem is for companies like General Motors and Ford Volkswagen Toyota Chrysler and so on they're because they cannot compete at all on costs they're bleeding insane amounts of money producing EVS rather than making tiny margins like the Chinese EV makers at least some of them Tesla's won the decade just about watching it play out but the number two three four five six seven eight nine and ten sport for vehicles sold globally are now up for grabs and whereas today there are some European some Japanese and some U.S companies on the top ten by the end of this decade there will be none in a distant second third fourth sixth seventh eighth twelfth place will be Chinese EV makers not the names most people today know and love this is the strangest cnbs segment I've seen in a long time all the questions they're asking as if they're concerned about Tesla are actually really bullish points about Tesla and very concerning for companies that aren't Tesla it's like everything's backwards because that's going to be what do you think will happen I I if if you have a second Trump Administration there will be presumably tariffs or protections against the importation of Chinese vehicles I would guess and they're still on the premise first Administration well yeah they're still they're still on it and I think what's happened right now look what's happening out of the Beltway Detroit big three I mean it's been got purchased from from UAW but now UL ultimately have Chinese EVS come men that would just add to the words I continue to see that as a cement wall that does benefits the big three but right now they're in that cage match with the UAW where in my opinion that's really the frustration it's building not just in the trip but across the industry it seems the one missing plank for Tesla would be if they had a model 2 or some kind of lower cost Mass market car that could compete against the Chinese or just make it more affordable for a lot of Americans who might be tempted to switch but that feels like it's just way off in the distance at this point oh my Flying Spaghetti Monster I mean uh you can Mexico that factory that Tesla has already announced the initial site to produce the next-gen vehicle then an update we heard in Walter isaacson's biography that the very first production models will actually be produced in Austin meaning Tesla currently has two factories one already constructed certainly it will expand and a second in the early stages will be constructed at record speed by the way it's Mexico a lot less red tape than there is in the USA and way less red tape than there is in Europe two Factory series that let's say 18 months from now at most could begin production of this next Generation vehicle between now and then we've had a massive refresh to model 3 first launching in China and places that the China Factory ships to like Australia shout out to my Aussie friends that refresh model 3 will find its way to the US very soon probably next quarter maybe early 2024 at the latest oh and then there's a cyber truck launch oh and then there was a surprise pseudo refresher the model why you guys heard about that right and then there's an inevitable massive refresh of the model Y which will follow the same specs roughly as the model 3 refresh rear screen and so on and by then you have first production and deliveries of the next gen Tesla vehicle actually I'm just kidding you know what she has a good point the time perspective on cnbs one day is long term so obviously 18 months or so that's so far off into the distant future it's just oh I can't even think about how long that is but I believe by the end of next year a sub 30k vehicle is introduced by Mars plus with cyber truck and that's why I just viewed this is in the early days even with supercharger and the sum of the parts this is not an auto company this is a disruptive technology company that's why we're buying here despite what I'll call definitely nothing right home about type of three you do every number so am I being an unreasonably deluded Tesla Fanboy oh did cnbs fumble the football big time yeah I'm only reacting to the full clip that I found posted on the interwebs maybe there's a missing context surely there must be but not once in that segment when CMS were claiming that Tes had a problem with demand claiming falsely by the way there was a build up of inventory what the not once did they mention the planned Factory shutdowns for the model 3 upgrade not once the stuff that Tesla told us ahead of time would be occurring and would explain why quarter over quarter deliveries were down sequentially not once did they mention that instead the entire narrative seems to be Tesla's got a problem there's a lack of demand also Chinese eBay makers are a threat because they have more models and more colors so real talk am I being a diluted Fanboy here or is this one of the most embarrassing things cnbs have ever done by the way to win such a Accolade is quite an achievement they've been off the mark on Tesla so often it's incredible but this is a doozy I just don't get it these quarterly delivery numbers in any case are a non-event Tesla doubling down on this release that they're still on track give or take for 1.8 million Vehicles delivered in the full year insane growth and an absolute tsunami of catalyst right around the corner give or take one two quarters from now I'm certain the refresh model 3 will be available to order in the United States cyber truck delivery is commencing soon because the semi continues to quietly ramp up the end-to-end video demo of FSD V12 holy telling you I'm doubling down on my prediction first Tesla Robo taxi somewhere on Earth probably coming foreign probably San Francisco to be specific in late 2024 I just want to repeat that it's late 2023 as I record this and I post believe roughly one year from now the first has a Rover taxis awaken let that sink in and soon after that the next gen vehicle 25 000 US dollars give or take and we know there's going to be two variations a dedicated Robo taxi and a compact vehicle and or just a much more affordable vehicle probably compact as well for consumers for the next 18 plus months 24 months at most oh and uh how much does Tesla stock down from all-time highs again was it like 40 sure it's nothing at 30 greens 81 has given me a massive meaningful boost in energy allowing me to do a lot more every day including using my brain more and using my body more I highly recommend you guys and girls check it out athletic greens81 is an excellent way to fill in nutritional 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