Tesla reported deliveries this morning and we saw a massive sell-off all the way down to 242 dollars where we bounced off of the 200 SMA and closed out at 251.69 at this moment it looks like Tesla will probably move its way back up to 256 and 260 but as you can see on your screen here we do have a big bearish setup that is happening a four hour Head and Shoulders pattern which we're going to cover in this video as well we're also going to talk about the massive unusual options activity that came through on Microsoft Amazon and a lot of other big tech companies and if I think the market will continue to move its way up over the next couple of weeks my name is Peter DeCarlo and I've been trading full-time for the past eight years I run a trading Community with over 12 000 members and you guys get access to all of our trading resources completely for free in the Discord Community down below if you guys want to get access to all of my personal trades coding Bots as well as all of our unusual options activity and live streams you can use the second link in the description completely free the first month and we do this so you guys can build up Capital make sure that we're legit for your trading style and with what you're currently doing with your life and more importantly just to prove ourselves to you guys so taking a look today we said that earlier we were hoping to see Tesla sell off to somewhere around 240 this is where my alert was I was looking to potentially go long on that one hour time frame we had a really janky inverted Head and Shoulders potentially set up and I never ended up entering the position you can see that our Candle on the four hour chart actually closed with a red hikanashi behind it the yellow candles that you guys see that is a hikanashi overlay basically meaning that you can still see the normal price candles which is the hollow candles right here but the yellow is going to show you when the hikanashi would normally be red the reason that I run both of these is that the hikanashi is a phenomenal Trend indication candle but it doesn't show you the actual price of the underlying stock because the hikonashi candle has a completely different formula but in simple terms when there are yellow candles it's a no-go and when they're green candles it's a go and you can see that we did close today at that and the hikonachi is currently green which is a good sign if we draw our Fibonacci retracement from swing High all the way down to swing low you're going to notice our golden own is going to sit right here between 260 150 down to about 255. the golden zone is basically the level where we are looking to go short or a potential rejection in a downtrend this is basically saying that of this downward move that we've recently have we can see that this would be a 50 retracement of this swing down not like a 50 move up but of this drop it would retrace and move back up 50 of the way it is normally around this level that we reject and ultimately make the way back down to this swing low so if we were to move up to 260 and we were to break over it and start to move our way back up to 272 then the head and shoulders slash bearish pattern that we have setting up here would be null and void as well from there we would probably end up filling the fair value Gap back up to 264 and taking out 280 dollars with that being said what I think will most likely happen is we will see Tesla move its way back up to 260 potentially even fill the fair value Gap up to 263.26 within the next week to week and a half this would be about a five percent move to the upside and I do think from there we will trap retail in the idea that we're moving back up to all-time highs and I do think from there we will probably reject and move our way back down to 240. now if the move to 240 does not happen I'm not mad at all because I'm a long-term investor and I would love for a continued High to happen you guys know that even when Tesla was selling off for the past couple of weeks I've been saying that we're still in this uptrend and that still stands we're still in this uptrend we're still in this consolidation Zone basically if you guys see here we have a symmetrical triangle that's forming and the trend is still up but I do believe that if we reject it 260 the move back down to 240 will happen the absolute worst that we would see is the move back down to 212 which would also fill this fair value Gap that we have back here on August 22nd so short term I am bullish but it's out of position because I didn't get to fill so now let's let's go over and look at Black Box stocks and let's look at any unusual flow that came through for Tesla or any other stocks today at the bottom left side of your screen you're going to see the most active calls for the day is NVIDIA and the second one is 10 Tesla with 21.19 million this is actually not a good sign if you were to look at this you'd be like oh wow look there's a lot of calls coming into this but if we were to actually move to the bullish confirmed flow you're going to notice that Tesla is nowhere to be found it's Nvidia Disney SQ Coca-Cola and Microsoft and if we look at this heat map it's going to give you a better indication of what exactly I mean this kind of kind of look like an Excel spreadsheet but this is actually a very solid tool that all of you should very easily be able to read and I'm going to explain it to you briefly basically on the left side here we have calls so c0 means any calls that expire this Friday C1 means any calls that expire next Friday and C2 means any calls that expire two weeks out or further P0 is puts that expire this week P1 is puts it expire next week and P2 is puts that expire two weeks or further out now inside of these cells you guys are going to see that there's different color dollars so there's light green there's light red and there's going to be white any of these white contracts that you see we don't care about everybody else out there is worried about these but we do not give a crap at all all we care about is confirmed flow not only in the market but in life Clarity is your best friend learning how to siphon out the noise and focus on the most important things is how you become a successful Trader and so what we care about is only the ones that are colored for instance these two 5750s that expire this Friday these are calls they're green this means that they are confirmed bullish flow meaning that they came in on the ask or above the ask which means we can pin it to a buy same thing with puts over here if we look at these 255 puts on your right you're going to see that there's 1057 contracts and these were all coming in on the bid or on the ask and there can confirm which means this person definitely went with a bearish position at 255 because if you're paying attention to all of these color the colorless ones these could be people selling calls these could be people selling puts they could be taking the opposite position of what you think they're actually taking there is a lot of options activity but to me it was a slow day because none of the options activity was clear enough data for me to actually take a position on Tesla however there are still some that came through in the past couple of days that were massive so one of the examples we're going to quickly look at now is going to be Microsoft this is something that we covered if you guys remember back on September 29th which was Friday we saw a massive unusual flow come through and I said there was big buyers coming in between they gave themselves more than enough time with expirations of January 2024 this is definitely a swing trade position on their end those whales were up 400 000 this morning or 20 on their contracts it's coincidental whatever you want to say but as this is dropping all the way down into support on these order blocks this is applicable to any of your long-term Investments any technical analysis whatever whatever underlying you're trading whether it's options whether it's going to be trading uh Bitcoin different crypto or any type of pairing in Forex this is all applicable as we're moving our way down we begin to see this order block start to come in we have multiple come through and we start to get this bounce as we see this bounce which would normally be a technical buy we get this big push up here this is on Friday and then right here is where we close our Friday candle so we're bounced off support which number one is a very good sign we bounced up over the 11 SMA which is a good sign we have no red hikanashi because there's no yellow candles as we've seen before and we're holding over the 11 SMA and to top it off some big whale buys a ton of calls so what what would we do here why would we not take a position even if this doesn't work out your trades don't have to work out you should be making your checks and balances at the end of the day of how great of a Trader you are based on how many requirements did you set and how many of those requirements were met for you to enter your position even if this was a losing trade there were so many bullish things in this case that there is no reason not to take it other than I literally have so much money out there in the market right now that I don't feel comfortable putting more out there so I have so many trades open that I didn't end up taking this but you can see we opened this morning at 3 16 32 we actually pulled all the way back down to 3 15 26 this would have been your time to get in and then from here moved our way up and then our next level is up at 326 and 329 at the highest I think we could go is fill all the way up at 334. but now let's move on to something that is actually happening today and to see if we can find an even better setup than something like this on Microsoft I called this out within our trading Community I said Amazon hit pretty big this morning over five million dollars in calls just between open at Eastern and this is extremely important because we're always looking for look at all the size of these orders this is over five million dollars worth of orders so two six expiration that's more than enough time on our hands we have here all of these are sweeps and all of them besides this bottom one came in confirmed on the ask and the way that we know that is by seeing the a or a a at the end of the flow now just taking a position based off a flow is something that some people may do but for me personally it's not the only thing that I'm going to look at so we move over and we look at the four hour chart we understand that this person went out until February so they're probably expecting this move to happen within the next couple of weeks maybe the next 15 to 20 days you can see that we saw Amazon with a drastic sell-off over the past couple of weeks if we were to take a Fibonacci and go from this swing High down to most recent swing low you're going to notice that that golden FIB that we talked about earlier that golden level is sitting right here at 134.66 up to 138. something else that's looking pretty good here is that we do not have a red hikanashi we're currently green but I would like to see us close over the 200 SMA tomorrow if we can hold over the 200 SMA I think there's a solid chance that we push our way back up to 135 probably consolidate or reject and either move our way back down to 124 or break through and push back up to those highs in my opinion if I'm taking this trade I'm wanting to see this pull back down to 126 and then I'm taking that move back up but if we you know it's a little preemptive to say this but if we actually zoom in a little bit you can see that there is a chance that we could potentially use this as an inverted Head and Shoulders on the four hour consolidating around this range and then potentially breaking our way back up to 140 33 and 144 dollars I hope that this video helped you guys if you want to hang out and trade 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